Forbes Mutch/LONDON
NORTH AMERICA dominates the business aircraft market, both in terms of manufacturing and operation. Fact. South America continues to emerge as the market most likely to expand. Fact. There are more turboprop-powered business aircraft in operation worldwide than turbojets. Fact? No, this is no longer the case.
For the first time since Bill Lear popularised business aviation with his Learjet 23 in the late 1960s, the number of turbojets in the corporate sector worldwide (8,046) has exceeded the number of turboprops (7,768).
At the end of 1992, Flight International commissioned research into the worldwide distribution of turbo-powered business aircraft. The results (Flight International, 7-13 April, 1993) provided evidence to support what was generally well known about the industry at the time - North America was, as now, the dominant player in the market; and there were more operators of turboprop aircraft than turbojets.
Two-and-a-half years on, Flight International is publishing an update of the same information. Although comparative analysis reveals a shift in the balance between turbojets and turboprops, it does not underline a fundamental change in market trends. It does suggest, however, that many of the predictions made for of the industry in the 1980s are turning out to be fallible.
QUESTION OF IMAGE
The years between the two surveys have seen the ravages of economic recession take effect. There is no doubt that during a recession, business aviation suffers more than any other sector of the industry. It suffers because of its image of personalised luxury; because it represents a supposedly expensive lifestyle, inappropriate in an age of cost cutting; and it suffers because company finance directors still have a tendency to view corporate aircraft and flying departments as superfluous self-indulgences. Jack Olcott, president of the US National Business Aircraft Association (NBAA), maintains that "...the biggest negative standing in the way of business aviation remains its image".
It is perhaps surprising, then, that operation of the more costly products on the corporate-aviation market should increase at the expense of their less expensive counterparts, particularly as, not long ago, manufacturers were promoting the cost-effectiveness of the turboprop.
There is no suggestion that the takeover by turbojets at the top of the 1995 table reflects a permanent future trend - the lead is, after all, less than 1% - but the major manufacturers are now concentrating on developing new jet-powered aircraft rather than turboprops. This is best illustrated by Raytheon's recent decision to launch a light business jet when, as manufacturer of the long-established Beech King Air, with 3,797 examples in service worldwide, it might have been expected to launch a follow-on turboprop.
As it is, the manufacturers now claim that new-generation light turbofans offer jet efficiency at roughly the same cost as the comparative turboprops, and are therefore biting into the traditional turboprop markets.
Added to this is the fact that, year on year, the total number of business-aircraft users shows only a moderate increase - 15,514 in 1992, for example, against 15,814 in 1995. Existing operators tend to upgrade on renewal of aircraft, which means that they convert at some point from turboprop to turbofan. At the moment, the number of such conversions may be outstripping the number of new, entry-level users at the lower end of the scale.
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION
It comes as no surprise that, in geographical terms, North America continues to dominate the user market, although the 23-unit increase between 1992 (10,053) and 1995 (10,076) is relatively small. In Europe over the same period the figures show a 3.8% decline, from 2,096 to 2,017 aircraft.
The surprises come, when looking at the countries at one time predicted to provide a boom market. Mexico, for example, the centre of much manufacturer promotion and dealer activity recently, appears to have suffered from the devaluation of its currency and has seen only a moderate, 21-unit uplift across all types, from 611 in 1992, to 632 in the present survey. Equally, China, with 22 aircraft in 1992, has increased its numbers only slowly, recording 26 in 1995.
The area of greatest growth has been South America, which has seen an 18.6% rise in operational aircraft between the two surveys - from 1,329 to 1,577. The largest increase in a single country is seen in Brazil (up by 101 aircraft), closely followed by Argentina (up by 92). Combining South and Central America (as Latin America) makes the region, with 2,325 aircraft, second in the league table. Europe now lies third.
Another area, which confirms its predicted promise, is the former Soviet Union. In 1992, "Russia" recorded only one business jet. Three years later, the individual nations of the CIS and the Baltic states show a 16-fold increased use of corporate aircraft, with 15 turbojets and one turboprop in service.
One notable difference between the two surveys lies in the fact that, according to compiler Aviation Data Services of Wichita, Kansas, only aircraft in genuine operational service have been included. The survey does not include, for example, any aircraft registered as a manufacturer's demonstrator or being held by a dealer awaiting sale.
Source: Flight International
