The US Department of Transportation (DoT) has produced a draft report on air transport trends for the 21st century which forecasts that the US airliner fleet will double to 13,800 aircraft by 2025.
The report says that US domestic passenger traffic has tripled since 1975 to around 600 million a year, and is expected to reach 1 billion annually within the next decade. The air cargo market has grown much faster than the passenger sector, increasing five-fold from 8 billion revenue ton-kms in 1975 to 25 billion last year.
The US regional fleet is expected to grow by two thirds, from 2,240 aircraft to 3,870, over the next 25 years. "Significantly, regional jets are expected to become the mainstay of the fleet midway through this 25-year period. By 2025, regional jets may account for nearly 65% of the fleet, compared to 15% in 1999," the report notes.
The US mainline airliner fleet is expected to increase nearly 4% annually, doubling from 4,355 aircraft to an estimated 9,940 in 2025. This will create a combined fleet of 13,800 aircraft, compared to around 6,600 now.
Source: Flight International
