Graham Warwick/WASHINGTON DC
US space industry chiefs say international co-operation may be required to produce a replacement for the Space Shuttle because of the projected high cost of developing a second-generation re-usable launch vehicle (RLV).
As estimates of the development cost for the RLV hover around $10 billion, industry believes NASA's hope that the Shuttle replacement will be developed commercially is unrealistic. "If they think they're going to replace the Shuttle for two or three billion dollars, it's not going to happen," says Boeing Space &Communications chief executive Jim Albaugh.
Speaking at the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics' Global Air &Space convention in Washington DC, Albaugh said development of a second-generation RLV "might be best done internationally to close the business case".
Larry Knauer, president of Pratt & Whitney's space and Russian operations, says: "There is a clear benefit from international co-operation." But issues to be overcome first include the highly competitive nature of today's launch services market and US barriers to technology transfer.
With the projected high development cost of the RLV, and scepticism that it could be operational by 2010 as NASA hopes, US industry chiefs expect the Shuttle to remain in service for longer than planned. The new generation of ELVs - Boeing's Delta V and Lockheed Martin's Atlas I - will bridge the gap until the RLV.
"For the next five to 15 years, you will not see a commercial initiative around an RLV," says Al Smith, executive vice-president Lockheed Martin Space Systems. "If we want to get to an RLV [the government] has to put money into technology development to make a breakthrough," he says.
P&W's Knauer believes it is more likely the USA will evolve its ELVs rather than jump straight to a second-generation RLV: "I think we can grow current launch vehicles incrementally while keeping the vision of a reusable system."
Source: Flight International
