Almost 1,000 jet airliners in fleet use could be retired from passenger operations between now and the end of 2000, according to predictions made by John Flynn, president of California-based leasing company Triton Aviation Services.
The forecast, made at the recent Speednews suppliers conference in Los Angeles, predicts a faster retirement trend than has previously been expected. Other forecasts, such as Walsh Aviation's, see more conservative retirement rates of around 278 aircraft a year on average between 1999 and 2003, by which time 1,390 aircraft are expected to be retired. In all, Walsh predicts 5,550 aircraft will be retired between now and 2018.
Triton's estimates, although providing relief against an excess capacity problem widely expected throughout the market by 2000, go against traditional trends. Until now fewer than 1,000 retirements were recorded between 1992 and 1997, and the highest number of retirements in any three-year period has been fewer than 500 aircraft.
Top candidates for removal from the passenger fleet in the USA over the next few years include American Airlines' 77 727-200s, Delta's 125 727s, Continental's elderly 727s, Boeing 737s and McDonnell Douglas DC-9s (90 aircraft total), and Northwest's 40 727-200s. Also included are United's 75 727-200s, 50 TWA 727-200s and DC-9s and 110 US Airways 737s and DC-9s. "Of these 500-plus aircraft, not all will be scrapped. Many of the hushkitted 727s will end up as freighters, but the high-cycle, low book value aircraft are vulnerable. The cost saving of operating fewer fleet types by the majors will accelerate the elimination of 727s and DC-9s."
Flynn believes his estimate is realistic because 527 of the 1,000 vulnerable aircraft are high-cost, high-cycle airliners. In addition, more than 785 narrowbodies were made in the 1960s and are therefore over 30 years old. Thirdly, 1,000 narrowbodies "are not committed to be hushkitted" and, fourthly, almost 600 aircraft are available in the fleets of US majors with low book values and a manufacture date before 1980.
In other forecasts revealed at the conference, General Electric predicts that the global market over the next 15 years will require 12,900 new passenger aircraft, 3,800 of which are in the backlog. Of the total, the North American market is expected to require 2,518 narrowbodies, with Europe second with a demand for 1,118.
Total narrowbody aircraft demand over the period is predicted to be almost 5,000. Despite its present problems, Asia is still expected to be the biggest user of widebodies. Of the 3,518 widebodies GE expects to be purchased over the 20 year period, some 1,442 are predicted to be operated by Asian airlines.
Meanwhile, Pratt & Whitney forecasts a demand for 15,670 aircraft over the next 20 years, with 40% of the total made up by widebodies. Of the total, the largest single element is expected to be made up of 281/375-seat widebodies, which are forecast to account for 3,595 sales, or 23%. Second place is expected to be taken up by sales of narrowbodies in the 136/160-seat segment. The engine maker predicts sales of 2,736 aircraft of this size category, or 17% of the grand total over the period.
Source: Flight International
