Aircraft leasing guru Steve Udvar-Hazy expects the operating lease industry to control 39% of the world's civil jet aircraft fleet by 2015 - and 45% by 2020. Hazy was speaking at the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT) aircraft assessors conference held in Munich on 10-12 October.
Hazy said: "In 2000 about 4,000 jet aircraft were on operating lease, representing 25% of the total jet population. Today, about 6,300 jet aircraft of a population of 19,000 aircraft are on operating lease, representing a total of 34%. By 2015, our projection shows that 7,800 aircraft or 38-39% of the world jet population will be on operating lease."
He explained that airlines' failure to generate consistent profits will see them turning to operating lessors as a financially viable route to growth, saying: "Airlines will have to work hard to reduce their financial volatility and have to earn more trust from the financial community."
More broadly, Hazy expects airline industry capacity to reach 6 trillion passenger kilometres by 2020, compared with 4 trillion today and 1 trillion in the 1980s.
By 2015, said Hazy, the world jet fleet should reach 26,000 aircraft, up from 19,000 today, with growth including a 30% unit increase in the widebody sector.
Hazy founded International Lease Finance and later sold the business to the now-troubled insurance giant AIG. Under AIG's ownership, and with access to the cheap money that flowed from its then-AAA credit rating, he built ILFC into the world's second-largest lessor, owning some 900 aircraft.
After retiring earlier this year, Hazy founded a new company, Air Lease, with a goal of building a 200-aircraft portfolio within three years. At July's Farnborough air show, Air Lease ordered 54 Boeing 737-800s, 51 Airbus A320s and 10 ATR 72-600s and signed a memorandum of understanding for 10 Embraer 190s.
Earlier this month he firmed up the Boeing order - and added six more aircraft.
Source: Flight International
