The 15 wise men charged with forming the Group on International Aviation and Climate Change's (GIACC) vision of a significant improvement in aircraft fuel efficiency centres crucially on the need for a yardstick measure.
Such a move essentially represents a first and formative step towards fulfilling the acid test of a consistent and fair approach in applying global mitigation measures, in addition to delivering the technological promises on which aviation's survival may come to rely.
So the group recommended that the International Civil Aviation Organisation develop a carbon dioxide standard for new aircraft types as part of an enhanced global co-ordinating role for international aviation's sovereign body within any future Kyoto protocol remit.
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It scores high in the popularity stakes with environmentalists too. Tim Johnson of the Aviation and Environment Federation reports that environmental NGO network, the International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation, tabled the same idea as part of a package of measures when it presented to the third round of GIACC meetings earlier this year.
Jeff Gazzard of the Green Skies Alliance also applauds the move as it would have the effect of speeding the rate of retirement of ageing aircraft. "Such is the seriousness of climate change, combined with the perversities of fleet retirement, that where cash-strapped airlines hang on to age-old aircraft - even though they have been written off many years previously - you are always going to need such a standard," he says.
But would this necessarily impose a phase-out regime by airlines?
Chris Essex, head of fleet procurement at UK carrier EasyJet, welcomes the steps taken by ICAO to establish an efficiency rating for new aircraft design
"Targets are clearly an important step in demonstrating the commitment of aviation to address its impact on the environment. However, this will have limited benefit compared with the concrete steps both Airbus and Boeing could take to design, manufacture and deliver a new technology short-haul aircraft before 2020. We believe the technology will be available in this timeframe to deliver a 50% improvement in fuel burn and commensurate reduction in CO2 emissions."
POSITIVE AIRFRAMERS
While airframers are understandably positive about the prospects of fuel efficiency standards, their salesmen are cockahoop.
Christian Dumas, Airbus's head of environmental affairs, confirms that the European airframer is working with other aircraft and engine manufacturers to help establish fuel efficiency standards.
"The existence of such standards underscores Airbus's and the aviation sector's commitment to reducing CO2 emissions, although the potential impact on real-life aircraft operations has to be carefully evaluated before we widely communicate on success," he says.
Boeing too sees no contradiction in having standards that observe the broader industry goal to reach 25% improvement in fuel efficiency by 2020. "Fuel cost has been, and will continue to be, the primary driver of improvements in fuel efficiency in our industry. Nevertheless, policy frameworks, properly structured, could play a useful role.
"With that in mind, we are discussing with industry partners, customers and government officials the concept of a global fuel efficiency standard for new production commercial aircraft," says Billy Glover, Boeing's managing director for environmental strategy.
Dimitri Simos, who heads aviation software design house Piano, introduces a note of caution. He believes there is a need to establish some early "ground rules" on transparency before any metric is universally accepted.
"My view is that although standards are necessary, a current lack of openly available quality data precludes their effective development. Tools such as Piano-x have become well established and could serve as a global reference tool to open discussions of quantifiables and grease some sticky cogs," he says.
Daniel Rutherford from the San Francisco-based International Council on Clean Transportation has used Piano-x and says the basic details are just starting to come together. "Even more than usual the devil is in the details," he explains. "At the moment a CO2 standard is so ill-defined that it's basically a Rorschach test, with each party seeing in it what it would like."
Even so, he says, most agree that a standard should cover aircraft rather than engines and most that a standard covering airlines would be difficult to implement and that demand would be better handled under market-based measures such as emissions trading.
He says there are three key questions that will determine the likely effectiveness of an aircraft standard. Will it be technology forcing or just serve to ratify the technology status quo? Will it cover all new aircraft sold or just new aircraft types - the latter would grandfather in all production lines and tie a standard into type certification, where pushing the technological envelope will be difficult. Lastly, will the standard be set to promote efficient aircraft design such as lower cruise speeds, optimised design range, and so on or will it take current manufacturer/airline business models as a given and focus solely on technologies?
"If we get our preferred answer on these questions - technology forcing, plus all new aircraft covered, plus design included - we are confident a standard could substantially reduce emissions. If not, we are much less optimistic," says Rutherford.
US LEGISLATION
Under the current US draft climate legislation termed Waxman-Markey, the US Environment Protection Agency (EPA) would be required to set a greenhouse gas standard for new aircraft by the end of 2012.
US congressional watchdog the Government Accountability Office recently produced a report, Aviation and Climate Change, an account of potential policy options to address aircraft to mitigate the fast-growing climate impact of aviation as a growth industry. Within that the EPA explains the importance of a fuel efficiency standard. Acting administrator Elizabeth Craig says standards can be effectively used to limit emissions levels and could include lead time and phase-in provisions to allow airframers time to respond to take account of market forces and future business needs.
"Appropriate engine emission standards could drive measures for improved fuel specific fuel consumption and airframe-related standards could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by improving efficiency," she says. "If ICAO considers both approaches, there is the potential for the EPA to do likewise."
So should ICAO come up short on content or timing, the EPA could introduce its own US domestic rule introducing an aircraft efficiency standard resembling an ideal that would tick all Rutherford's boxes.
Source: Flight International
