Max Kingsley-Jonesand Ian Sheppard/LONDON
The World's fleet of ageing airliners continues to grow, while the manufacturers are boosting the production of potential new replacements to new record- breaking levels. This year's Flight International census shows that almost 11,000 jet-powered and turboprop airliners in active service as at 1 January, 1997, are more than 15 years old , which is equivalent to a growth of more than 15% compared to 1996.
For the 1997 census, additional information on the growing fleet of ageing turboprops in the 20-seat category (some 1,100 aircraft) has been included, making direct year-on-year fleet comparisons invalid. Meanwhile, the jet-powered ageing fleet has grown by almost 10%, to just over 6,700 aircraft as more of the current- generation types begin to qualify. The oldest jet-powered aircraft in service is a 1959-build Boeing 707-100, and while older examples remain in existence, they are in storage.
Jet-powered aircraft making their debut in this census this year include the Boeing 757, Airbus A310 and British Aerospace 146, as well as the stretched upper deck -300 version of the Boeing 747. All these aircraft entered passenger service in 1983, but several examples of each were completed during 1982, which qualifies them for the census. In 1998, the Airbus A300-600, an advanced development of the A300B (which has featured in the census for some time), will be included.
Widebody growth
The widebody component of the ageing fleet continues to grow, with a 20% increase being recorded in 1997. The widebodies are also representing an increasingly larger proportion of the total ageing jet fleet, increasing from 18% of the total in 1996 to almost 20% in 1997.
While the number of ageing widebodied aircraft continues to increase, the "clear-out" witnessed in recent years of the older, inefficient narrowbodied types has also contributed to the widebodies' increasing share in the census. The rising fuel prices experienced in 1996, along with environmental pressure, provide further incentives to airlines to retire their older, inefficient airliners, and replace them with more modern equipment.
According to the Airclaims Jet Storage Update (JSU) publication, around 670 jet-powered airliners were in storage at the beginning of 1997 (all years of build), which is a similar level to that of the idle fleet 12 months earlier. The stored fleet dropped to a low of fewer than 600 in mid-1996, however, and a similar fall has been recorded in 1997. The fleet of idle airliners represents about 5% of the Western-built jet-powered fleet.
Widebodies make up 30% of the idle fleet, mainly Airbus A300s, Boeing 747s, Lockheed TriStars and McDonnell Douglas DC-10s. The glut of idle widebodies has seen many of these aircraft being dismantled for spares, with the Airclaims CASE database recording around 20 units being permanently retired in each of the past two years. CASE records a total of 80 Western-built jet-airliner retirements in 1996, compared to more than 120 in 1995. Significantly, around 110 widebodies have now been permanently retired, mostly 747s (48 aircraft) and TriStars (28).
While the older, less-desirable widebodies are being broken up, the availability of cheap, younger airframes has resulted in a surge in cargo conversion deals. British Aerospace Aviation Services and Dasa Airbus have between them sold over 20 A300B4 freighter conversions, while FedEx has concluded a deal to acquire the DC-10-10 fleets of American Airlines and United Airlines, for conversion to freighters. 747-200 cargo conversions also continue at a considerable rate, with the US cargo airline Atlas Air being the prime customer.
Cargo conversions carried out by third-party organisations are coming under increasing scrutiny by the US Federal Aviation Administration. The issue raised its head in 1995, with questions asked about the 747, but it became far more serious at the end of 1996 when the FAA began to examine the designs of cargo doors engineered for the 727 without the original manufacturer's data.
The FAA's airworthiness directives are expected imminently, and some conversion specialists are already preparing plans to undertake the compulsory modifications on the huge fleet of converted 727 freighters.
Turboprop focus
The introduction of new turboprop types to the census this year has resulted in the ageing fleet doubling to more than 4,250 aircraft. Data are now included for the 20-seaters, including the Government Aircraft Factories Nomad, BAe/Handley Page Jetstream, Beech 99, de Havilland Twin Otter, Embraer EMB-110 Bandeirante, and the Fairchild Dornier 228 and Metro. Also included for the first time is the Aerospatiale/Nord 262 and Gulfstream I.
JSU shows that some 800 of the 6,500 Western-built turboprops were idle at the beginning of 1997, which at 13% is more than double the ratio of the jet-powered fleet. This total is also over 100 units greater than in 1996. The largest idle fleets are those of the Jetstream (114 aircraft), the Fokker/Fairchild F27/ FH-227 (80 aircraft) and the Raytheon Beech 1900 (71 aircraft).
The core of the older turboprop fleet is deployed in the cargo role, with Vickers Viscounts, Lockheed Electras and Convair 580/600/640s being popular with European carriers. In the CIS, the civil Antonov fleet continues to grow as aircraft are transferred from the military.
Source: Flight International
