Boeing has revised upwards its market outlook for China on the back of domestic network growth – and despite not clinching any orders of late – as it projects a doubling of the commercial aircraft fleet in 20 years.
According to Boeing’s commercial market outlook, Chinese operators are expected to take delivery of more than 8,800 new aircraft through 2043. The figure is highest in four years, since China dropped its onerous pandemic restrictions.
Of the 8,830 new jets, more than 75% of them – or 6,720 aircraft – will be single-aisle jets, a category which also includes the 737 Max.
Boeing notes that air travel in China is forecast to become the largest traffic flow globally, a phenomenon which will drive growth in the narrowbody fleet. The latest forecast is slightly higher than 2023’s forecast of 6,470 single-aisle jets.
The company faces stiff competition in China in the narrowbody market, with homegrown airframer Comac clinching 100-aircraft orders from China’s three largest operators Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines.
There have also not been any new Chinese orders in recent years for the 737 Max, a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions between the USA and China, as well as Boeing’s production quality issues.
The market outlook indicates that about 18% of new deliveries, or 1,575 aircraft, will be widebody aircraft, while freighters will triple in size by the end of 20 years to 170 jets, with “demand stimulated by its booming e-commerce sector”.
Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president for commercial marketing, says: “China’s commercial aviation market for passengers and cargo continues to expand, driven by economic growth and airlines building their in-country networks.”
On the services front, Boeing forecasts Chinese carriers to need about $780 million in aviation services, up about 15% compared to 2023’s forecast. This is indicative of a growing fleet size, Boeing notes.
It also forecasts China to need close to 430,000 new personnel – including cabin crew, pilots and engineers – over the next 20 years, a lower figure compared previous estimates.
