Dublin airport’s summer capacity next year will be capped at 25.2 million seats, with the Irish civil aviation regulator warning that slot demand is likely to greatly exceed this limit.
It points out that summer 2025 is the second scheduling season to take account of an Irish national planning body condition – dating from 2007 – which restricts the combined annual capacity of Dublin’s two terminals to just 32 million.
“This planning condition remains in existence, and is limiting the available slot capacity below the capacity of the physical infrastructure,” says the Irish Aviation Authority.
Its summer seat capacity limit of 25.2 million, plus a winter 2024 limit of 14.4 million, gives a total of 39.6 million seats – higher than the conditional passenger limit of 32 million, because it adjusts for load factor as well as transfer passengers.
The regulator says it expects demand for summer 2025 slots will “significantly exceed” the cap, and it will prioritise carriers according to slot usage in summer 2024.
But it cautions that “not all slot series” from this year will be able to find accommodation next year.
The regulator adds that the cap decision will result in “very little, if any” available capacity for new, or ad hoc, slot requests – a consequence of the planning condition which, it says, it has no power to amend or revoke.
It points out that, if the planning condition did not impose the 32 million-passenger restriction, it could declare a “significantly higher” airport capacity, providing slot opportunities for growth and new entrants.
Budget carrier Ryanair has condemned the decision. “We have no doubt that this absurd 17-year old [planning] restriction – which was solely deigned to allay road traffic ‘concerns’ which no longer exist – will be thrown out by the European courts,” says Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary.
He insists that the Irish transport ministry could, in the meantime, lawfully direct the Irish Aviation Authority to approve airline slot requests for winter 2024 and summer 2025, adding that Ryanair is taking legal steps to intervene in the decision.
