Airbus has publicly broadcast its annual global market forecast for the first time since 2000, projecting strong demand for large aircraft.

Compared with its 2003 forecast, Airbus has increased its overall demand for new airliners and freighters by 6% to around 17,300 aircraft. This is around 16% lower than Boeing's latest forecast (20,700 units excluding regional jets), as Airbus sees greater demand for larger aircraft.

While Airbus has pushed its forecast for large airliners/freighters (450 seats and above) to 1,650 units, Boeing puts demand in this category at less than 400. On the back of the launch of the A350, Airbus has redefined its "small twin-aisle" category - which had previously only included 250-seaters - by transferring the 300-seaters from the next group.

Airbus has increased its single-aisle forecast by 8%, and revamped the demand split away from the larger 175/210-seaters towards the smaller 100/125/150-seat sector.

Airbus 20-year Global Market forecast Comparison

 

Seats

2004

2003

Change

Single-aisle

100

834

584

+43%

 

125

2,459

1,888

+30%

 

150

3,123

2,363

+32%

 

175

2,463

2,798

-12%

 

210

2,023

2,442

-17%

Subtotal

 

10,902

10,075

+8%

Small twin-aisle

250

1,800

1,782

+1%

& regional freighters

300

1,319

1,219

+8%

Subtotal

 

3,306

3,177

+4%

Intermediate twin-aisle

350

797

744

+7%

& long-range freighters

400

533

649

-18%

 

Freighters

142

174

-18%

Subtotal

 

1,472

1,567

-6%

Large aircraft &

450

239

203

+18%

Large freighters

500

517

537

-4%

 

600

283

292

-3%

 

800

166

101

+64%

 

1,000

45

30

+50%

 

Freighters

398

372

+7%

Subtotal

 

1,648

1,535

+7%

Grand total

 

17,328

16,354

+6%

MAX KINGSLEY-JONES / LONDON

Source: Flight International

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