IAN GOOLD / LONDON
Airbus has raised slightly the number and value of new airliners that it believes will be needed over the next 20 years, but has no plans to publish its latest 2003-22 global market forecast (GMF).
The document, equivalent to Boeing's market outlook that was unveiled at the Paris air show in June, is understood to be circulating among Airbus marketing executives. However, the manufacturer denies that the document has been completed or that there has ever been a timetable for publication.
Latest Airbus predictions show a requirement for over 16,000 new aircraft of more than 100-seat capacity (including freighters), valued at $1,600 billion, according to market forecasts vice-president Adam Brown. The last published Airbus GMF, unveiled 14 months ago after a year's delay following 11 September, predicted a $1,500 billion market for 15,800 aircraft.
In the 20-year GMF period, Airbus expects the present sharp decline in world air travel to make a strong recovery, although growth will be at a slower rate and will vary between regions.
Compared with the historical annual increase in traffic (revenue passenger-kilometres, or RPKs) of 6.2% during 1970-2002, future average growth is put at 5% a year until 2022. By that time annual traffic will have reached almost 8,500 billion RPKs - more than two and a half times the current level, says Brown.
After taking account of all recent factors, such as the global economic recession, market response to the Iraq war and the SARS virus, he suggests that global growth trends predicted in previous industry forecasts have effectively "moved about 18 months to the right" on charts.
Source: Flight International
