European aircraft manufacturer Airbus has raised its expectations for the long-term demand for aircraft by an additional 5,400 units, in forecasting a requirement for 22,700 new passenger and freight aircraft between 2006 and 2025.
Airbus today published its latest 20 year global market forecast for the 100-seat plus sector and revealed the demand in emerging markets such as China, India and Russia is the key factor fueling increased expectations for demand, compared to its forecast of two years ago. Airbus has also increased its expectations for the rate of airlines replacing aircraft.
“The period will be marked by an increasing demand for new more fuel-efficient airliners to help address airline operating costs, as well as environment concerns,” Airbus says. “This factor will lead to a higher replacement rate of over 12,000 aircraft.”
Airbus anticipates an average growth rate of 4.8% in passenger traffic over the next 20 years and a requirement for 21,900 new passenger aircraft. This will see the existing passenger fleet rise from 12,676 aircraft in 2005 to 27,307 in 2025. Airbus sees 4,800 of the 12,000 aircraft to be replaced being recycled back into passenger service.
Much of the reason for the higher overall figure in the new forecast stems from emerging markets’ demand for single aisle aircraft.
The manufacturer forecast a demand for just under 11,000 single-aisle aircraft in its 2004-2023 forecast, published two years ago. But it has increased the figure for 100 to 210-seat aircraft to over 15,000, driven by more emerging markets such as China, India and Russia and the growth of low cost, in particular the growth of budget operations in Asia.
Airbus expects demand in the twin-aisle sector to increase by a little more than 800 compared to its 2004 forecast – half of which is again driven by the emerging markets – in reaching 5,267 aircraft over the 2006 to 2025 period.
In the very large aircraft category – which includes the A380 aircraft – Airbus has only slightly raised its forecast for the next 20 years to 1,665 aircraft.
Airbus anticipates average growth of 6% per annum over the next 20 years in the freight sector, creating an additional demand for 3,580 freighter deliveries – of which 803 will be factory-built freighters.
Specifically, the new global market forecast anticipates:
- single-aisle aircraft: 15,330 new aircraft representing 68% of new aircraft and 39% by value
- small twin-aisle aircraft: 3,868 new aircraft representing 17% of new aircraft and 26% by value
- intermediate twin-aisle aircraft: 1,800 new aircraft representing 8% of new aircraft and 15% by value
- large aircraft: 1,665 aircraft representing 7% of new aircraft and 20% by value
Source: FlightGlobal.com
