Airbus Global Services expects the global commercial services market will almost double to $290 billion per year in 2043 from its current level of $150 billion.
During that time, the global commercial fleet will rise to 48,230 aircraft, including 42,430 new deliveries, the company says in its latest 20-year forecast, published on 18 September.
More than 18,400 aircraft will have to be replaced, paving the way for operators to repair, recycle and reuse the parts.
That work will require a massively expanded skilled workforce, Airbus says. The industry will need 2.26 million new workers during the next two decades – 690,000 technicians, 620,000 pilots and 950,000 cabin crew.
“This is clearly something we have to pay attention to, and is a challenge for airlines,” says Sonia Dumas, head of Airbus Services marketing.
The report focuses on three workstreams: ‘maintain’ (maintenance, spares and aircraft life-cycle services), ‘train and operate’ (training and flight operations services), and ‘enhance’ (upgrades, connectivity and in-flight entertainment services).
By 2043, the ‘maintain’ stream will account for 85% of the total market, at $244 billion, with ‘train & operate’ reaching $17 billion, and ‘enhance’ at $29 billion.
“These services are instrumental to enable the rise in traffic demand and fleet efficiency and utilisation,” adds Cristina Aguilar-Grieder, senior vice-president of customer services.
South Asia and the Middle East will be the regions that show the greatest growth in the next two decades, with China emerging as the largest services market, at about $61 billion, by 2043. North America and Asia-Pacific will be at around $50 billion each and Europe at $55 billion.
The market for aircraft dismantling and recycling will see 7.5% annual growth, and is forecast to reach about $500 million by 2043. Currently there are more than 100 dismantling and recycling services centres globally, with that figure expected to triple by 2043.
It is a small portion of the overall sum, but “clearly increasing at a very high pace”, adds Dumas.
The market for ground operations will rise to $65 billion, up from $39 billion currently, Airbus says, with efficiency boosted by digitalisation and automation to improve efficiency.
“High turnover and lack of experienced staff are major pain points,” the company says.
