Major Asian carriers are starting to reinstate services scrapped during the worst of the SARS-induced downturn between April and June but are cautioning that a full-on recovery in demand has yet to begin.
Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways, which grounded 22 aircraft and slashed 45% of its scheduled flights in June, will in July reinstate 170 suspended services per week and return 13 aircraft to service.
It has seen a slight pickup in demand since the World Health Organisation (WHO) lifted an advisory warning against unnecessary travel to Hong Kong late in May, although yields remain badly depressed and passenger demand is still generally weak. Cathay chairman James Hughes-Hallett responded that this year's summer travel season has been "lost…for good". Cathay is talking privately of taking a couple of years to repair the financial damage.
Ian Shiu, general manager revenue management, sales and distribution, added: "The summer traffic volume for [Cathay] this year will be way below 2002's performance. Any recovery for us will be slow."
Cathay normally carries more than 35,000 passengers a day at this time of year, but a week after the WHO lifted its travel advisory on Hong Kong the airline was only carrying around 7,000. By around mid-June it was reportedly carrying around 11,000 a day. Cathay carried 75% fewer passengers in May, averaging just 7,870 per day, while traffic in terms of revenue passenger kilometres were down 68%. Passenger load factor was down 32.9 points to just 41.4%.
Like most airlines, Cathay expects business traffic to pick up before leisure, but this too is likely to be a slow process, and it warns that talk of a recovery is premature. "Rebuilding will only occur step-by-step," cautions chief operating officer Philip Chen, adding that "we do not expect a general recovery will be either fast or strong".
Singapore Airlines said in mid-June that while there was "anecdotal evidence of some pickup, loads are still far from the pre-SARS levels and it is still too early to conclude that a recovery is on hand". The airline reported a 59.5% drop in the number of passengers carried in May, while traffic was down 55.6%. Passenger load factor fell 18.9 percentage points to 53.1%.
In China, majors China Eastern and China Southern Airlines were badly hurt in May, although both expect demand to pick up in the coming months. China Southern saw passenger numbers plunge 83.5% in May. China Eastern's passenger numbers were down 84%, while its passenger load factor averaged just 27% during the month.
Cambodia's Mekong Airlines succumbed to the SARS travel slump in May, grounding its single Boeing 737-500 that only began services in January. However, the carrier says it aims to reinstate services in July.
While the major airlines are hesitant to say that a genuine recovery has begun, the worst affected airports are more optimistic.
Hong Kong International Airport, which saw passenger numbers fall 80% in May, says while the impact of SARS has been substantial it is "only temporary and by no means will it weaken Hong Kong's position in global aviation. Traffic statistics show the full impact of SARS was reflected in May".
Beijing's capital airport, which handled 87% fewer passengers in May, says foreign airlines are starting to reinstate suspended services. A spokesman says that "generally speaking, we believe the traffic will recover slowly but steadily, and it might take two months or more to reach the pre-SARS level".
NICHOLAS IONIDES SINGAPORE
Source: Airline Business
