The average age of the global commercial airline fleet has reached a “record” of 14.8 years, according to IATA, as supply-chain challenges frustrate the industry’s growth and decarbonisation efforts.
Outlining its latest forecasts on 10 December, the industry association said that new aircraft deliveries have fallen sharply from the high of 1,813 units in 2018, with this year’s predicted total of 1,254 marking a 30% shortfall from expectations as the year began. That left the age of the fleet this year significantly higher than the 1990-2024 average of 13.6 years.
IATA expects deliveries to rise to 1,802 units in 2025, which is still “well below” earlier expectations of 2,293 deliveries, with further downgrades “widely seen as quite possible”, it claims.
“Supply-chain issues are frustrating every airline with a triple whammy on revenues, costs and environmental performance,” says IATA director general Willie Walsh.
“Load factors are at record highs and there is no doubt that if we had more aircraft they could be profitably deployed, so our revenues are being compromised.
“Meanwhile, the ageing fleet that airlines are using has higher maintenance costs, burns more fuel, and takes more capital to keep it flying.”
Notably, IATA points out that the ageing fleet means fuel efficiency flatlined between 2023 and 2024, marking a “step back” from the long-term trend of annual improvements.
“Manufacturers are letting down their airline customers and that is having a direct impact of slowing down airlines’ efforts to limit their carbon emissions,” Walsh says.
Furthermore, lease rates for narrowbody aircraft are up 20-30% on 2019 levels, amid “exceptional” demand to compensate for the lack new jets, IATA says.
Compounding the issue, IATA states that some 14% of the global fleet – or around 5,000 aircraft – is parked. That is around four percentage points up on pre-Covid levels, it notes, and is partly explained by some 700 jets being grounded for inspections of their Pratt & Whitney geared turbofans. The latter issue is expected to persist into 2025.
Airbus, Boeing and other manufacturers have acknowledged that supply-chain challenges continue to create uncertainty around production targets into 2025, while insisting that many of the issues are not unique to the aerospace sector.
