Global airline passenger traffic was at 94.1% of 2019 levels in 2023, according to annual data from IATA, as an improving trend through most of the year put the industry within touching distance of pre-Covid demand.
That assessment follows IATA’s projection in December last year that traffic measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) is expected to be 4.5% above 2019 levels in 2024, ending four years of lost growth amid the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
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US domestic traffic was 3.3% up on 2019 levels in 2023
RPKs in the final quarter of 2023 were at 98.2% of 2019 levels, IATA said on 31 January, “reflecting the strong recovery towards the end of the year”.
The 2023 traffic performance was up 36.9% year on year, the airline association adds.
“The strong post-pandemic rebound continued in 2023… with a strong performance in quarter four teeing-up airlines for a return to normal growth patterns in 2024,” says IATA director general Willie Walsh.
International traffic – which accounted for just over 60% of RPKs – was 11.4% down on 2019 levels in 2023, while domestic traffic – accounting for around 40% of RPKs – was up 3.9%.
International traffic among Asia-Pacific carriers was the biggest drag on the global performance, at 27.3% down on 2019, following a year in which China’s return to international markets proved to be a tentative one. North American carriers were the only regional grouping to achieve international RPKs above 2019 levels during the year, at 1.2% up. Elsewhere there were single-percentage-point deficits to 2019.
The largest domestic markets were all either above or below 2019 levels by single percentage points. Those exceeding pre-Covid traffic included the largest markets: China’s domestic RPKs were up 7.1% while the USA’s were up 3.3%.
The global industry’s load factor of 82.3% in 2023 was down 0.3 percentage points from 2019 (which, at 82.6%, was a record high) but up 3.6% year on year.
Data for the month of December reflects strong progress on the international market recovery during the 12 months, with international RPKs just 5.3% down on the same month in 2019, versus an 11.4% full-year deficit.
Asia-Pacific continued to be the outlier in December, albeit its 17.5% deficit to 2019 was around 10 percentage points improved on the full-year figure. Europe, Latin America and North America all recorded international RPKs slightly ahead of 2019 levels during the month.
Across international and domestic markets, global RPKs were down 2.5% on December 2019, with capacity lower by the same amount. RPKs had been within one percentage point of 2019 levels in November, but IATA notes that in seasonally adjusted terms, traffic grew by 1.3% month-on-month in December.
Data released in the coming months will show whether the global airline industry’s struggle to secure capacity – amid factors such as aircraft delivery delays and the grounding of some A320neo-family aircraft because of issues with their Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engines – will lead to a revision of traffic projections for the full year.
