IATA is now forecasting that the global airline industry will this year exceed the profitability it achieved in 2023, although it notes that margins remain thin.
Global airlines are expected to record a combined net profit of $30.5 billion this year, versus the $27.4 billion they are estimated to have recorded in 2023, IATA said at its AGM in Dubai on 3 June. That revised projection represents an improvement from the $25.7 billion that the industry association forecasted for 2024 in December 2023.
“In a world of many and growing uncertainties, airlines continue to shore up their profitability,” says IATA director general Willie Walsh. “The expected aggregate net profit of $30.5 billion in 2024 is a great achievement considering the recent deep pandemic losses.”
Walsh adds, however, that while the industry “is on the path to sustainable profits”, the $6.14 earned per passenger “is an indication of just how thin our profits are”.
That figure is “barely enough for a coffee in many parts of the world”, Walsh says.
“Strengthening airline profitability and growing financial resilience is important,” the IATA chief states. “Profitability enables investments in products to meet the needs of our customers and in the sustainability solutions we will need to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.”
All regions are expected to make positive contributions to industry profitability in 2024, IATA says, albeit to varying degrees.
The biggest contribution is expected from North American carriers at $14.8 billion, or $12.40 per passenger, on a margin of 4.7%.
European carriers are expected to contribute $8.6 billion, or $7.28 per passenger, on a margin of 4.0%.
Carriers in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to record a profit of just $0.6 billion, or $0.70 per passenger, on a margin of 0.5%.
In the Middle East, profits are expected to reach $3.1 billion, or $12.70 per passenger, on a margin of 4.9%.
In Latin America, profits of $0.2 billion are expected, or $0.70 per passenger, on a margin of 0.5%.
African carriers are expected to record a net profit of $0.1 billion, or $0.50 per passenger, on a margin of 0.4%
Global revenues are expected to reach $996 billion, up 9.7% year on year and a record high for the industry.
At 4.96 billion, the total traveller number is also expected to be a record high.
