Paul Lewis/TOKYO
Japanese defence spending over the last 40 years has been largely responsible for sustaining a small, but highly capable, local aircraft industry. This will change as a post-Cold War reduction in military spending has left manufacturers scrambling to replace the shortfall in work with commercial programmes.
When measured against Japan's giant automobile and consumer-electronic manufacturers, the country's aerospace sector is a relatively minor player. Its output for the 1993/4 fiscal year totaled $8.63 billion, compared to $99 billion-worth of industrial electronics and equipment production.
The industry nonetheless supports four principal airframe and engine manufacturers - Mitsubishi (MHI), Fuji (FHI), Kawasaki (KHI) and Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI). The four "heavies", together with Shin Meiwa and Nippi and a host of smaller back-shop companies, are dependent on the Japan Defence Agency (JDA) for around 80% of their total aerospace output.
Unlike Western companies, however, this dependence is offset by a diversified corporate spread of non-aerospace activities. Aircraft production accounts for 18-20% of MHI and KHI's total turnover and only 8% for FHI.
According KHI Aerospace Group senior general manager Ryozo Tsutsui: "There is no true aircraft company in Japan. They are all mixed up with other activities. Even if the aerospace business fails, KHI's six other groups are making healthy profits and the company as a whole can still survive."
Staff rationalisation is another matter, however. Japanese corporate philosophy rules out large-scale Western-style redundancies, while the transfer of personnel to other divisions, such as shipbuilding or car manufacturing, is possible, but, in practice, would prove difficult.
Each of the heavies' aerospace divisions employ large workforces, which, when compared to other sectors, are comparatively unproductive per head. FHI's Aerospace division, for example, accounts for some 20% of the company's total workforce, yet generates only 8% of its cumulative revenue.
DIMINISHING DEFENCE WORK
Japan, in contrast to the West, has been slow to cut defence expenditure in the wake of the Soviet Union's break-up. Its hesitation to cut the military can be explained in part by Russia's continued occupation of Japan's former northern Kurile Islands and the absence of a formal peace treaty with Moscow 50 years after the end of the Second World War.
The Japanese Government, nonetheless, has begun to trim the defence budget. The JDA's recently approved '4.72 trillion ($47.5 billion) allocation for the 1995/6 fiscal year, represents an increase of only 0.86% on 1994 - its smallest hike, for 30 years. More significant is the decline in equipment procurement to '900 billion, down by 10% on four years ago.
Japan's next five-year defence plan, due for release soon, will almost certainly contain deeper cuts in weapon acquisition for the period 1996-2000. Incorporated into the plan will be a wide-ranging defence review now being conducted by Japan's socialist-led coalition Government.
The defence industry is hoping that delays in completing the study will forestall any large-scale cuts for another year and give Japan's more conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) time to return to power. Analysts, however, doubt whether even a LDP Government will be able to resist pressure to cut defence spending, particularly now that there is a need to allocate large sums of money to earthquake reconstruction in the city of Kobe.
PROGRAMMES PENDING
Funds for 68 new military aircraft, worth '219.3 billion, are provided for FY1995, a 26.1% less than in the previous year. Many programmes are close to completion, such as the licence-built MHI McDonnell Douglas F-15J fighter, KHI Lockheed P-3C maritime-patrol aircraft and FHI Bell AH-1S anti-tank helicopter.
With the downturn in production of many existing mainstay products, the aerospace industry is hoping that the next five-year plan will contain the go-ahead for some new work-sustaining programmes.
Of paramount concern for MHI is production approval for the FS-X support fighter, developed from the Lockheed F-16. The first of four planned flight prototypes was rolled out on 12 January and the aircraft is scheduled for its maiden flight later this year (Flight International, 18-24 January).
The Japan Air Self-Defence Force (JASDF) had hoped to purchase 130 FS-X aircraft to replace its fleet of single-seat MHI F-1 close-support fighters from 1999 onwards. Development costs, however, have doubled, to '327 billion, and, with an estimated unit price tag of '8 billion, final production could shrink to as few as 70 aircraft.
MHI is hoping to win funding for an F-15 upgrade programme as an interim measure to keep its Komaki South Plant at Nagoya in work until the FS-X comes on stream. The JASDF has ordered and taken delivery of around 200 F-15J/DJs to date, and plans to purchase a further five aircraft in FY1995, against a total requirement for 223 aircraft.
The proposed joint Japanese-US up-grade, costing '2 billion an aircraft, will include replacement of the F-15's radar with either the improved Hughes APG-63U, or Mitsubishi Electric phased-array radar, developed for the FS-X. Linked to the programme is the development of the new Mitsubishi XAAM-4 active-guided medium-range air-to-air missile to replace the AIM-7 Sparrow.
For KHI, the JDA's primary supplier of larger fixed-wing aircraft, the FY1995 budget contained little joy, with no new orders for P-3C anti-submarine warfare (ASW) aircraft. The Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) is instead concentrating on upgrading it fleet of over 90 P-3Cs with a new search radar.
KHI is pinning its long-term hopes on the development of the proposed C-X transport aircraft, to replace the JASDF's fleet of KHI C-1As, and an ASW replacement for the P-3C. The company, however, has been told unofficially that it cannot expect to proceed with both projects. Its C-X proposal, furthermore, faces strong outside competition from the McDonnell Douglas C-17 and, possibly, the European Future Large Aircraft.
Its main prospect for new work in the 1996-2000 period centres on the OH-X scout/observation helicopter being developed for the Japan Ground Self-Defence Force (JGSDF). The tandem-seat helicopter is planned to be flown in 1996 and enter service in 1999, to replace the JGSDF's licence-built Kawasaki OH-6Ds.
The OH-X faces competition for funding in the next five-year plan in the shapes of the AH-X attack helicopter and UH-X utility machine (Flight International, 25-31 January). Tokyo-based defence sources doubt that there will be sufficient money available to support all three programmes.
FHI, for its part, is hoping for support to extend production of its AH-1 and UH-1 helicopter lines. FHI is proposing a four-blade version of the twin-engine Bell AH-1W SuperCobra as a more cost-effective AH-X alternative to the McDonnell Douglas AH-64 Apache. The company is also pushing its UH-IJ in a low-high mix with the MHI-built UH-60JA to meet the JGSDF's UH-X requirement.
R&D BUDGET BOOST
While growth in overall defence spending is slowing, manufacturers are taking heart from the increased allocation funding to the JDA's Technical Research and Development Institute (TRDI). The TRDI's slice of the defence cake has risen steadily, from 2.6% in 1991, to 3.23% for FY1995.
A total of '153 billion has been set aside for the TDRI in FY1995, up by 9.8% on the previous year. The bulk of this provision is consumed by continued development of such big-ticket items as the FS-X and the OH-X - over '88 billion has been spent on the latter since 1992.
Other major items underwritten by TDRI funding include the XAAM-4, with '16.6 billion requested in the next budget to complete development by 1997, and a further '1 billion being sought for the JGSDF's new XATM-5 fire-and-forget anti-tank missile.
Among the more interesting projects being pursued by the TRDI is the construction of a new aerodynamic and propulsion-systems research centre at Chitose, on the northern Hokkaido Island. It will include an engine altitude-testing site, a burning wind tunnel, a subsonic/transonic/supersonic wind tunnel and a combustor tester.
The simulated altitude-testing site will be capable of accommodating engines rated up to 49kN (11,000lb)-thrust. Over '8 billion has been invested in the site since the start of work in 1993. An additional '13 billion is being ploughed into the burning wind tunnel for rocket-ramjet engine testing.
New projects planned for development in 1995 include the start of work on a lightweight turbofan engine (Flight International, 5-11 October, 1993) and an air-launched unmanned air vehicle (UAV) for long-range reconnaissance.
The TRDI has asked for '1 billion in FY1995 for IHI to begin development of a 50kN engine to power a technology-demonstrator aircraft in 2007. The programme is seen as forming the possible basis for an indigenously developed stealth fighter, designated the F1-X, with which eventually to replace the JASDF's F-15s (Flight International, 19-25 October, 1994).
An initial '700 million has been allocated in the next budget to develop a new prototype UAV. The 6m-long remotely piloted vehicle (RPV) is intended to be flown at up to Mach 0.9 and transmit real-time infrared imagery to a ground station.
FHI will act as prime contractor, drawing on its experience in developing the J/AQM-1 target drone and Flying Forward Observation System (FFOS), developed for the JGSDF using a RPV helicopter. The company is also studying a microwave-powered ultra-high altitude research vehicle (MILAX) for communication relay and weather observation.
BALANCING ACT
Western aerospace manufacturers, faced by similar contractions in defence spending, have attempted to fill the gap by increasing military exports and expanding commercial activity. Japanese options, however, are limited by a post-1945 constitution prohibiting the foreign sale of weapons.
It is widely assumed that the Japanese Government will not lift the ban and, even in the unlikely event that it did, analysts estimate that potential annual defence sales would amount to only $2-3 billion, less than 1% of the country's total exports.
Balanced against this, says Tsutsui, "...the political cost of allowing military exports would be huge: it just doesn't make sense". The only real alternative, he suggests, is to reduce industry reliance on defence contracts to 50%, by expanding into the commercial-aircraft market.
FHI has set a similar target. "We're trying to double our commercial activity to 40%, but new projects are needed," confirms FHI commercial programmes general manager Kisaburo Wani.
Current Japanese civil-aerospace output is dependent to a large extent on foreign contracting work, primarily for Boeing, for its commercial output. Work is co-ordinated by the Japan Aerospace Industry (JAI) consortium, formed by MHI, KHI and FHI, together with the smaller Shin Meiwa and Nippi companies.
JAI's largest undertaking to date is a 20% share of the Boeing 777's airframe, which has included design, development and testing. JAI's 777 work package consists primarily of, KHI producing forward-fuselage sections 43, 44 and 45, MHI aft-fuselage sections 46, 47 and 48 and FHI the centre wing and wing-body fairing.
The 777 agreement is an extension of JAI's 17-year involvement with the Boeing 767 programme. KHI supplies the aircraft's forward and middle fuselage and, together with Nippi, its wing ribs; with MHI, the aft fuselage; with FHI, the wing-body fairing and main landing-gear door and Shin Meiwa the tail-plane's trailing edge.
All five aerospace companies contribute to a lesser extent to the Boeing 737, 747 and 757, and the McDonnell Douglas MD-11 and MD-80/90. Industrial co-operation with Airbus Industrie is limited to KHI building the Airbus A321's aft-fuselage extension barrel.
"Our relationship with Boeing evolved over time," explains Goto. "I don't think we intentionally avoided the establishment of a relationship with Airbus, it just happened that way. We can't involve ourselves in directly competing programmes."
Tsutsui adds, "We're deeply involved with Boeing business, but there are always some exceptions, such as our A321 subcontract." Another KHI exception, he says, is the UK, which has proved "a very good customer and friend of Japan".
Kawasaki's UK connection rests primarily with Rolls-Royce and the JMSDF's extensive use of Spey and Olympus marine gas turbines, but also includes a small stake in the Trent turbofan engine. IHI has taken a stake in both the Trent and rival General Electric GE90 engines, while MHI has a 10% share in the competing Pratt & Whitney PW4000 turbofan.
Japan's most ambitious collaborative civil-engine project to date has been the International Aero Engines V2500 turbofan. The Japanese Aero Engines consortium, consisting of IHI, KHI and MHI, has a 23% stake in the programme and is responsible for producing the engine's wide-chord fan and four-stage low-pressure compressor.
YS-X STUDY
As important as sub-contracting and foreign work-share is for Japan's aerospace industry, most analysts agree that new Japanese-led programmes are needed, if manufactures are to achieve their stated 40% commercial goal.
Attention has accordingly focused on developing the proposed YS-X regional passenger aircraft. The project was originally conceived by the Japan Aircraft Development (JADC) consortium as a 75-seat successor to the Nihon YS-11 twin turboprop - the country's previous, and largely unsuccessful, attempt at building its own passenger aircraft.
A 75-seat aircraft contained too many risks and, in particular, was considered too small for the "low end of the US airline market", recalls JADC senior managing director Shinya Kobayakawa. JADC efforts instead, are now focused on a larger 90- to 110-seat aircraft, as part of a joint feasibility study with Boeing.
The YS-X study is funded jointly by Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) and the private sector. MITI's contribution in FY1995 will double to '2,423 million, including '993 million to cover the airframe study. The aircraft industry will contribute a further '1 billion.
MHI, KHI and FHI each have 30% stake in the programme, with the remaining 10% split between Shin Meiwa and Nippi. The overall study is managed and coordinated by JADC in conjunction with Boeing.
According to Kobayakawa, the aircraft's design will feature a low wing, under-wing-mounted twin turbofan engine and a fuselage cross-section large enough to accommodate five-abreast seating. Particular emphasis, he adds, is being placed on good performance and competitive pricing.
JADC hopes to reduce development costs to '100 billion, by maximising system commonality between the YS-X and Boeing 737 series. "We would like to have a common flight deck as much as possible to achieve cross-crew qualification," says Kobayakawa.
Consideration is also being given to using a modified 737-300/400/500- series wing on the YS-X. No decision has been taken on the aircraft's 70-90kN-class engine. Front runners include the proposed GE/Snecma CFM56 Lite and BMW Rolls-Royce BR.715 engines.
Given Japan's domestic preference for large aircraft, the success of the YS-X will, to a large extent, rest on foreign sales. "We do not have an established marketing and product-support organisation," admits MHI's Goto. "Our thinking is to have a partner in this area, instead of trying to develop our own organisation."
Boeing, for its part, wants to extend any joint regional-aircraft programme to other countries in the region, such as China and South Korea, to form an Asian collaborative programme. Chinese engineers are participating with Boeing as observers in the joint YS-X study. China, at the same time, however, is negotiating with South Korea to develop a similar-size regional aircraft.
There has been a lukewarm Japanese response to the idea of involving other Asian nations, which would undermine its aim of project leadership. "At the moment, the door is not closed," says Kobayakawa, but adds: "It seems China and South Korea are wanting to join together and develop an aircraft that is a separate project from ours."
JADC and manufacturer estimations of when the YS-X feasibility study will be completed differ considerably, ranging from March 1995 to early 1996. Goto explains: "We don't have a timeframe, that's the reason for the confusion. It's a step-by-step approach."
While this official vagueness is partly because of Japan's determination to get the aircraft right first time, there is also a reluctance to launch the project until there is firm evidence of an upturn in market demand. Senior industry officials recognise, however, that a decision will need to be taken within the next 12 months, if the target of the aircraft entering service in the year 2000.
SUPERSONIC ASPIRATIONS
Beyond the YS-X project, Japan's aerospace industry is determined to play a major role in the development of the next-generation supersonic transport (SST). While Europe continues to dither over its commitment to such an expensive project, MITI has already committed '5,390 million - half of its next FY1995 budget, towards SST-related studies.
Included in this is '3,661 million for basic research and development of a super/hypersonic propulsion system. The HYPR project encompasses Japan's three principal engine manufacturers, IHI, MHI and KHI, together with R-R, GE, P&W and Snecma.
The planned combined-cycle engine, featuring a ramjet integrated with a high-performance turbojet, will be capable of generating speeds up to Mach 5. IHI began testing a scaled-down turbojet model at its Mizuho plant in December. Altitude testing, will be conducted by GE in 1996, followed the next year, by ground noise test at R-R.
P&W has responsibility for testing the ramjet's combustor. Scale-ramjet models are planned for evaluation at Japan's National Aerospace Laboratory between 1995 and 1997, culminating with GE testing a combined-cycle model in 1998.
Japan's enthusiasm for the SST is in marked contrast to the apparent lack of active discussion about its future involvement with an ultra high-capacity aircraft (UHCA).
Goto explains: "SST is going to involve new technology, which has captured Japan's imagination. It's really a futuristic programme versus the UHCA, which is a commercial issue - they can build the aircraft with today's technology, it's just a question of whether the market can support it."
Given the importance of Japan's international airlines and the proven capabilities of its aerospace industry to produce advanced composite aero-structures, most observers expect the country to play a significant part in the eventual development of a UHCA.
Source: Flight International
