After more than three decades of being forced to pick around for scraps to keep its air transport operation functioning, Iran's government indulged itself less than two weeks after the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions.
Iran Air's tentative agreement for up to 118 new Airbus jets and 40 ATR turboprops appeared to bring a degree of clarity to its fleet-modernisation plans after days in which various officials mentioned various numbers.
"This is a huge market because Iran is a big country… They have very old aircraft so they have to change their fleet and grow very fast," said Airbus chief executive Fabrice Bregier as Iran Air sealed a heads-of-agreement for 73 long-haul jets – comprising 12 A380s, 16 A350-1000s and 45 A330s – plus 45 from the A320 family.
But a heads-of-agreement is not a firm order, and Bregier acknowledged that the two sides still needed to work to convert the deal and satisfy the "outside condition" of securing an export licence.
He indicates that the first deliveries will be carried out within months and run to 2023. But the precise schedule, and even the final composition of the order, has yet to become unequivocal.
Iranian president Hassan Rouhani's office suggests 17 aircraft will be handed over this year, while Iran Air chief Farhad Parvaresh has put the number at between five and eight. While the 118 jets are new, the delivery picture is confused further by the possibility of leased and second-hand aircraft being added to the mix.
ATR's schedule appears more certain. It says it will start delivering the first ATR 72-600s – from an order for up to 40 – by the end of this year, adding that the aircraft will have 70 seats. Iran Air indicates that two to four aircraft will arrive this year.
Iran has a population the size of Germany and a territory more than four times larger, but its fleet is a tenth of Lufthansa's and includes long-haul airframes such as Airbus A300B2s and Boeing 747-200s which are 35 years of age.
But while there is an undeniable need to update the fleet, Iran Air indicates that the implementation plan remains in flux. Whether it takes all 12 of the A380s – a fleet on the same scale as British Airways' and Air France's – remains subject to commercial circumstances, it admits, as well as progress on developing the country's airport infrastructure to handle the type.
Middle Eastern carriers have gained a reputation for ambitious development. The proportion of long-haul types in the Iran Air plan might point to a desire to recapture Tehran's former position as a regional hub. The capital has potential to shorten, compared with Dubai and Doha, some one-stop flight routes between European cities and destinations in the Asia-Pacific region.
But US carriers are still blocked from operating to Tehran. And Gulf airlines, including Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways, have broadly adopted liberal policies – such as provision of alcohol – which have helped to encourage travel via their hubs, although Bahrain's Gulf Air has demonstrated that having similar ingredients does not guarantee successful replication of the recipe.
Maintaining a restrictive regime is likely to result in Iran Air's having more in common with Saudia, which despite having an extensive fleet does not share the international marketing draw of Gulf counterparts. The Gulf carriers have also established strong connections to Iran, capitalising on an absence of nonstop links between Iran and several large geographic regions, with the result that feeder traffic is channelled away from Tehran.
Iran's government will need to commit heavy investment resources, at a time of slack oil prices, to begin catching up with its neighbours. Its Airbus renewal alone amounts to nearly $28 billion, at least at catalogue prices.
Iran Air has not indicated the routes on which it would deploy the dozens of aircraft, beyond vague references to placing the A320s primarily on domestic services, with the long-haul jets likely to operate to North America and China.
Aside from Gulf competition, Iran Air faces several obstacles in its efforts to rebuild its network after its time in the political wilderness.
Iran Air is restricted in its operations to the European Union over safety concerns. The airline's transformation will require a substantial training effort to convert pilots and maintenance technicians from operating on the oldest Airbus and Boeing types to working with the most modern.
Sanctions had blocked the sale of commercial aircraft with more than 10% of US-sourced content, shutting off routine avenues for aircraft purchase since the late 1970s – a time when Iran Air was still viewed as a potential customer for the BAC-Aerospatiale Concorde.
But while the 16 January lifting of restrictions relating to Iran's nuclear activity has provided a window for approved transactions, the freedom will not apply to all Iranian carriers. Sanctions aimed at curbing support for terrorism-related activity remain in place.
Iranian carrier Mahan Air remains restricted by US sanctions and has pursued unorthodox means to update its fleet, including complex third-party arrangements detailed in UK court documents, such as those from 2009 centred on transactions involving a batch of Boeing 747-400s.
"Secondary sanctions continue to attach to significant transactions with Mahan Air and other Iranian persons," says the US Department of the Treasury, which also adds that cargo aircraft are "not eligible" for licensing under the commercial aircraft supply policy.
There is no firm indication as to whether the Iranian government, as Iran Air's owner, would have freedom to distribute aircraft acquired by the carrier to other operators in the country.
Source: Cirium Dashboard
