Booming demand for commercial air travel has enabled Airbus and Boeing to accumulate vast order backlogs, but a recent report from one of the industry's leading training providers has highlighted the scale of the challenge that operators will face over the coming years as they look to recruit sufficient pilots to fly their expanded fleets.
In its Airline Pilot Demand Outlook covering the 10-year period until 2027, CAE predicts that 255,000 new pilots will be recruited across the industry. This is in line with its recent experience and an IATA forecast of a 4.2% per annum growth in traveller numbers from now until the end of the study period, when capacity is expected to reach 4.8 billion passengers: 1.6 billion more than today.
Of the total expected new recruits in CAE's calculation, 150,000 – approaching 60% – will be required to meet growth expectations, while 105,000 will replace those retiring from the industry. The training provider's figures suggest that some 440,000 pilots will support a global commercial fleet which will also increase markedly, to reach about 37,000 units by 2027: up from about 25,000 airliners today.
"Rapid fleet expansion and high pilot retirement rates [also] create a need to develop 180,000 first officers into new airline captains: more than in any previous decade," CAE says. "Airlines and their training partners will need to produce an average of 70 new type-rated pilots per day globally to match the record-high aircraft delivery rate and account for pilot attrition.
"This record demand will challenge current pilot recruitment channels and development programmes," the company says. "New and innovative pilot career pathways and training systems will be required to meet the industry's crewing needs and ever-evolving safety standards.
CAE's views on the commercial aircraft market are supported by it having manufactured more than half of the full flight simulators (FFS) operating in the market today, according to FlightGlobal's civil simulators census. This shows the company as running 45 training centres in 26 countries, equating to 14% of such operations around the world. Also ranked 44th in our recent Top 100 aerospace companies report, due to its 2016 sales performance of $1.95 billion, it currently trains more than 120,000 pilots per year, working in conjunction with 300-plus airlines.
According to the company, roughly 20,000 new pilots entered the industry in 2016, with approaching one-third of these having secured a seat in the cockpit after graduating from an airline-focused training academy. About 6,500 recruits followed this path: up from 4,000 only four years earlier.
"Professional academies provide an environment with set schedules, access to pilots, mentoring, mandatory uniforms and an airline mindset," CAE says. "When enrolled in programmes built to airline-specific operating procedures, cadets train to a professional standard from day one."
Just over half of the total new pilots – 10,500 – were recruited via independent training organisations, the company's figures show, with this total having fallen from 11,000 in 2012. CAE notes that fewer than 70% of trainees taking this option will become airline pilots, versus more than 90% of graduates from professional academies.
Also on the decline is the number of new pilots sourced from the military, business aviation and university training sectors, with the report highlighting a 25% fall between 2012 and 2016; when about 3,000 such recruits progressed to a commercial cockpit.
CAE's forecast shows that the Asia-Pacific region will have the greatest demand for new pilots over the coming decade, with 90,000 to be required to support fast-growing carriers. Representing 35% of the total expected pilot demand, the figure ranks ahead of the Americas' projected 85,000 entrants, and is three-times greater than that for the Middle East.
Flight Fleets Analyzer shows that 29% of the current commercial in-service fleet is operated from within the Asia-Pacific region, with its total of just over 8,200 aircraft barely 200 fewer than North American carriers' share.
"Strong economic growth, an expanding middle class, new low-cost carriers, new routes and increasing competition make Asia-Pacific the fastest growing region for air travel," the report notes, pointing to especially strong demand in China and India. "Both countries have the potential to become even larger aviation markets with the relaxing of regulations and new investments in airports and air traffic management systems. In addition, India's recent implementation of less stringent foreign ownership rules may help stimulate air travel growth," it adds.
CAE's research indicates that almost 10% of current airline pilots in the Asia-Pacific region are expatriates. Such recruits operating narrowbody types typically receive a salary premium of about 12% compared with their counterparts in the Western hemisphere, but it notes that this can be as high as 70% at some Chinese carriers.
About 70% of the region's new recruitment activity will be to support growth, with the forecast 90,000 figure being roughly 5,000 more than the current active total with its carriers. CAE also expects 62,000 new captains to be required in the region over the study period: more than one-third of the global total.
"A few years ago, it was common to see a co-pilot spend eight to 10 years working in the right seat before becoming captain – today it is not uncommon to see a pilot taking full command of an aircraft after only a few years as a co-pilot," the report states. It notes that this accelerated learning curve "places additional stress on the current training system" and increases the need to provide remedial instruction, for example as new guidelines on the delivery of upset prevention and recovery training come into effect from 2019.
"Emerging training and technology innovations that integrate training data with line performance data can help build such an approach," says CAE. "Through a better understanding of the pilot's profile, the instructor is able to adapt training and delivery to better address competency gaps."
But with the Asia-Pacific region seemingly poised to become the global fleet leader, its carriers' emphasis is likely to shift from tempting large numbers of foreign recruits to pilot their fast-growing fleets to the development of local talent. Sheer numbers will remain important, the report notes, due to the volume of narrowbody aircraft being acquired by low-cost carriers (LCC) especially. CAE says airlines require about 11 pilots for each narrowbody in their fleet, and points to their projected increase from 55% to 60% of the global inventory by 2027.
"A pilot roster containing highly experienced contract captains and first officers from diverse airline backgrounds not only addresses short-term operational requirements, it also plays an important role in accelerating the development of younger first officers," the forecast notes. "While these contract pilots can be effective in addressing part of the demand, airlines are creating their own dedicated cadet programmes to source local pilots for the long-term."
CAE is highly active in supporting such ambitions, already working with multiple Asia-Pacific carriers, including AirAsia, Cebu Pacific, IndiGo, Jet Airways, Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Vietnam Airlines.
Late last month, CAE executed a share purchase agreement with AirAsia to acquire the airline's 50% shareholding in their previously joint-venture Asian Aviation Centre of Excellence, giving it full ownership. With facilities in Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam, the organisation trains pilots, plus cabin crew, maintenance engineers, technicians and ground services personnel on the A320 and A330, and Boeing's 737.
AirAsia expects the transaction to be completed by the end of November, and values the deal at $100 million. Under the arrangement, CAE will remain as its exclusive pilot training partner until 2036. The training company will also acquire AirAsia's stake in the Manila-based Philippine Academy of Aviation Training, which the airline established as a joint venture with Cebu Pacific.
CAE is also working to expand its collaboration with the Jakarta Aviation Training Centre, with the pact to include it installing its first owned FFS – for the A320 – to support carriers including AirAsia Indonesia.
The training provider's relationship with Indian LCC IndiGo started in 2011, and it has now delivered more than 250 graduates, as the airline – which Fleets Analyzer shows as having a current active inventory of 134 Airbus A320s, including re-engined Neos – expands towards an eventually 400-strong fleet.
Also in India, Jet Airways earlier this year partnered with CAE to launch a new ab initio pilot training programme, with the relationship to cover the instruction of more than 380 students over the next five years.
"With the introduction of this training programme, we are creating fresh batches of highly skilled cockpit crew to augment our in-house talent pool," the carrier says.
An initial intake of 60 students will commence their instruction soon, attending CAE academies in Phoenix, Arizona and Gondia, India. Type-rating on the 737 will be performed at the company's training centre in Bengaluru, which already supports Jet Airways' fleets of A330s, 737s and 777-300ERs.
CAE also has recently strengthened its relationship with SIA, with the pair signing a memorandum of understanding to establish a new pilot training facility in Singapore. The joint venture will focus on the delivery of simulator-based training for Boeing aircraft types, in support of SIA Group airlines and other carriers in the Asia-Pacific region.
The new facility will be based at the Singapore Airlines Training Centre near Changi airport, and is expected to begin operations at the end of this year, pending regulatory approvals. SIA will transfer four of its own FFS to the site, with CAE to provide additional equipment to support the provision of type-rating and recurrent training programmes for the 737Max, 747, 777 and 787.
“With the SIA Group expanding its fleet to drive additional growth, the joint venture will help keep pace with our own training requirements, as well as those of other airlines in the region," says SIA chief executive Goh Choon Phong.
The carrier already has a 45% stake in the Airbus Asia Training Centre, which is scheduled to have eight simulators in use by 2019, making it the airframer's largest flight crew training facility globally.
Through its long-term pilot training arrangements and ongoing major investments in local infrastructure, CAE will remain a key partner as the Asia-Pacific region's carriers strive to meet their growth ambitions by preparing a new generation of pilots.
Additional reporting by Aaron Chong in Singapore
Source: FlightGlobal.com
