With the last big air show of the year behind them, Airbus and Boeing have all but matched each other in sales during the first seven months of the year. But the picture is very different in the output arena, where Seattle has again established a significant lead.
Following all the noise around Farnborough, where Airbus announced orders and commitments for 279 aircraft (including 197 firm), the European manufacturer's net-order tally for this year to the end of July stood at 323. This was very slightly behind its US rival, which took 334 net orders despite a characteristically lower-key approach to air shows: Boeing disclosed around 180 commitments at Farnborough.
Four-fifths of the total orders so far this year are for the single-aisle models, and again Boeing has the edge with 296 orders against 255 for Airbus. However, Airbus outsold its rival in the widebody segment – 68 against 38 – and retains command of the 12,500-strong backlog, with a 56% share.
Unusually, back in February Airbus retrospectively adjusted the orders it had previously declared for 2015. This resulted in an additional 51 gross orders being incorporated into its 2015 tally, increasing the net total by 44 to a total of 1,080 aircraft. These reclassified deals comprised 30 A320neos for BOC Aviation, 19 A320neos for Gulf Air and two A330neos for an undisclosed customer.
In the widebody segment, during the first seven months Airbus secured 47 orders for its new-generation twinjets: the A330neo and A350. However, demand remained strong for the current A330 models, with 21 net orders being placed. The A380 order tally remains unchanged.
The 787 has been driving Boeing's widebody success so far this year, securing half of the 38 orders placed.
Orders for the 777 have slowed significantly. After securing 58 net orders for current and future versions in 2015, just eight net orders have been added in 2016 so far, all of which are for the current version.
"Boeing is impacted by a couple of issues on the 777. Firstly, it has a legacy production line with the 777-300ER exposed to the technology upgrade coming with the 777X family and the attendant improvement in operating cost and performance," says Rob Morris, head of Flight Ascend Consultancy.
"Put simply, as a customer, why would I want to take this year's model when I can wait and have the better version in a relatively short timescale? The best incentive here is of course price, and that could be a route they have to take to sell the 100 or so open slots they still have in the -300ER/777F line until the 777X comes along."
Morris believes that Boeing aims to sell a significant number of the remaining slots as the 777F variant, but that the ongoing slump in the cargo sector renders this a major challenge.
"So it does seem likely to us that Boeing will have to further cut 777 production – as it has signalled as a potential move – in the light of weak demand for current models," he says.
Morris also points out that in addition to the supply of new aircraft which remains open from the production line, there are significant lease returns scheduled during the same period, which inflates supply in the face of weak demand. "So it also seems that -300ER residual values and lease rates also face some potential negative pressure over the next few years," says Morris.
In output terms, the two manufacturers have delivered 771 aircraft between them so far this year.
Production across the rival single-aisle airliner plants is neck-and-neck, with Airbus having delivered 280 A320-family aircraft – including the first batch of A320neos – as Boeing shipped 284 737s across the seven-month period.
But Boeing's continued strength in widebody output skews the overall delivery total significantly in its direction – 432 deliveries giving it a 56% share.
The US manufacturer shipped 148 widebodies during the first seven months, compared with 59 Airbuses. Of these Boeing widebodies, 82 were 787s and 56 were 777s.
Toulouse is still in ramp-up phase on the A350, delivering 15 aircraft in seven months against its full-year target of 50 units. If this is to be achieved, Airbus must complete 70% of the planned deliveries for the year in the remaining five months.
Airbus says it has set up a "timetable adaptation plan" on the A350 line to "maintain sufficient resources" and support manufacturing flow over the summer season. Just how near to that full-year target Airbus will get remains to be seen.
Source: Cirium Dashboard
