In a Hollywood version of the Russian commercial aviation story, the last 15 years fits the narrative of a classic comeback script, with the final act – the unlikely-yet-somehow-triumphant entry-into-service of a Russian-Chinese widebody around 2025 – still to be written.
But not even Hollywood could come up with the plot-twist-filled narrative of the real-life Russian aviation industry since 2001, when Sukhoi launched the Superjet. Over the next decade-and-a-half, the struggle to revitalise Russia’s once-mighty commercial aircraft manufacturing industry would face technical setbacks, production bottlenecks, political intrigue and financial crises – and all that on the Superjet project alone.
In an interview with FlightGlobal, United Aircraft (UAC) chief executive Yuri Slyusar doesn’t shrink from that complicated record. Slyusar understands English well enough to get his point across, but he still prefers to use a translator. Asked why the future widebody project will have more success penetrating foreign markets than the Superjet or developmental Irkut MC-21, the translator begins interpreting Slyusar’s response, saying: “We received many positive experiences from the Superjet.” At that moment, Slyusar cuts the translator off, interjecting a few words in Russian. The translator then corrects himself: “Okay, maybe bad experiences.”
The point, Slyusar says, is that Russia has learned valuable lessons in the industrial crucible of building and selling the Superjet and now the MC-21. UAC’s Chinese partners, he adds, are gaining similar experience developing Comac’s ARJ-21 and the C919. That makes two Russian and two Chinese commercial aircraft in production by the time the widebody enters service in 2025.
“We’ll have experience, so we think we’ll have more success,” Slyusar’s translator concludes.
Ready or not, the Russian-Chinese project is rapidly moving forward. In June, Slyusar joined government and industry officials of both countries in China, where the aerospace partners and rivals agreed to form a joint venture to collaborate on development, production and aftersales support of a widebody.
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Russia exported Su-27s to China in the mid-1990s, reviving a military aviation trading relationship that had been dormant for nearly 40 years. The widebody represents the first collaboration between China and Russia in the commercial aviation industry and is considered in Moscow and Beijing as the centrepiece of a long-term strategy to cultivate a globally competitive aviation industry.
The 280-passenger aircraft with a 6,480nm (12,000km) range scheduled to enter service between 2025 and 2027 is only a first step. Much like its immediate predecessors, the future widebody will rely on Western technology in critical areas to make the aircraft competitive. For instance, UAC and AVIC jointly issued a request for proposals to engine manufacturers and received two responses: one from GE Aviation and another from Rolls-Royce, Slyusar says. Separately, Russia and China will develop alternative engines in the same thrust class, allowing primarily state-owned aircraft an indigenous source of supply and creating a stepping-stone to help catch up to the West’s most advanced engine technology.
In other ways, however, the jointly built widebody will offer a showcase of technology advances by Russian and Chinese suppliers over the past 10 years. The MC-21, for example, is set to enter service in 2018 with several innovations in the narrowbody market, including a fly-by-wire system controlled using active sidesticks, a 6,000ft cabin altitude and a composite wing manufactured using Russian supplier AeroComposite’s out-of-autoclave resin-infusion process. If Irkut still lacks the industrial and financial capacity to make the MC-21 a marketing equal to the Airbus A320neo or Boeing 737 Max, it demonstrates that Russia is regaining the Soviet Union’s once-powerful technological edge in the commercial market.
With at least nine years before the widebody enters commercial service, the Chinese and Russians may still be few years away from freezing the detailed design. But the aircraft will build upon the Russian and Chinese industry’s growing sophistication in structural assembly and electronic systems. Neither Airbus nor Boeing has any plans to introduce a new widebody in the decade after the A350-1000 enters service in 2017 and the 777X family comes to market in 2020-2022.
“It’s pretty early to name exact innovations that will be in the aircraft,” Slyusar says through the interpreter. “These technologies that we have that we bring to the MC-21 we of course would be likely to bring to the widebody aircraft. For instance, the black [or composite] wing, which is a competence we have already. But of course it’s a competitive challenge to make an aircraft with the big boys that would be on par or even better than the competition.”
In the meantime, UAC is dedicated to refreshing its widebody production skills, albeit in an unconventional way. Ilyushin has delivered a handful of Il-96Ts, a stretched and freighter version of the passenger-carrying Il-96-300. Now UAC is developing a passenger-carrying version of the Il-96T, dubbed the Il-96-400. Although there have been many passenger-carrying aircraft designs that are adapted for the freighter market, the Il-96-400 may become one of the first freighter designs that gets adapted into a passenger-carrying airliner.
“We will continue doing the aircraft and we plan to receive a certificate for a passenger version of a stretched Il-96-400, which is right now only cargo-certified,” Slyusar says. “Our aim is to preserve a low-level production of the Il-96 widebody mostly for our government airplanes for the president of the [Russian] Federation and Ministry of Defence. Plus, we plan to make a small number of airplanes for commercial aircraft to support continued operation of the fleet.”
As a state-owned manufacturer, UAC’s product strategy is not always within its control. Three years ago, UAC had a plan to address a shortfall of regional aircraft optimised for serving the distant small cities in Russia’s far east and Arctic north. UAC signed a deal with Bombardier at the MAKS air show in 2013. In return for UAC buying 100 Q400 turboprops, Bombardier would transfer final assembly to a new factory operated by UAC in Ulyanovsk. But negotiations over final pricing dragged on for several months. By summer 2014, the Bombardier deal collapsed due to economic sanctions imposed by the Canadian government on Russia over Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.
Although the deal was voided, the need for a regional transport remained. Several options were reportedly on the table, including teaming up with China’s Xi’an Aircraft to assemble the MA700 in Russia. Those discussions are also shelved, and now UAC is focused on developing a re-engined version of the Ilyushin Il-114.
“It’s maybe not the biggest market in the world but still a market we should fulfil for our transport organisations,” Slyusar says. “We plan to use this aircraft as a platform for special-mission purposes of the ministry of defence.”
The Russian military has always figured large in UAC’s revenues, contributing 80% of the company’s revenue in some years. That will continue with the government’s long-term commitment to modernising the Russian air force with new fighters, bombers and transports. At the same time, UAC remains committed to balancing revenues between military and commercial over the long term.
“Nothing has changed in terms of the big strategy goal. By 2025, we will have a 50:50 split between military and civil in terms of revenues,” Slyusar says. “Mostly this should be achieved by bigger growth in the civil segment, outgrowing the military segment. Increasing Superjet production, MC-21 market entry and the Il-114 should add to that. All this should contribute to this growth.”
Source: Cirium Dashboard
