Mike Martin
Airbus Industrie (AI) is at Asian Aerospace 2000 having passed a critical milestone in its epic journey to build a "jumbo jet for the 21st century" - the 555-seat plus A3XX.
It is appropriate that the Singapore event should be the first major air show since AI announced the "market test" phase for the world's biggest airliner. If the huge double-deck aircraft is to win orders and fly, 50% of sales are likely to come from airlines in Asia-Pacific.
The region's airlines are critical to the success of the programme and the AI team will be out to woo them during AA 2000, knowing that this year is crunch year for the programme, with a launch decision expected towards the end of the year.
The European airframer is devoting a section of its display at AA2000 (A701) to the A3XX, but not all. The overall exhibit is a showcase for AI's core values of comfort, innovation and technical commonality.
Some believe an announcement of further progress on the programme would ensure this show's place in history, but AI is not giving anything away just yet.
John Leahy, AI vice-president marketing, will only say that the show will provide an opportunity for the ongoing campaign of discussions with airlines.
"What we are doing at this stage is going out to the 20 airlines that were members of the focus groups that worked with us for two years on the performance of the airplane, and we are essentially asking them if they are in a position to make a decision on this aircraft if we launch in the middle of this year," he says.
"Asian Aerospace has always been a show we are pleased to be at, and we look forward to having very productive meetings with airlines in the region.
"The show comes at a time when we are talking to airlines that are on our launch list."
Asked about numbers needed before launch if the A3XX is sanctioned by the AI board, Leahy won't be drawn. He says: "It's not really about numbers per se. It's about geographic distribution and the calibre of (ordering) airlines. I think we are looking for initial commitments from two airlines in Asia-Pacific, one in Europe and one in North America."
Whether there is anything new to announce on A3XX at the show or not, expect intense behind-the-scenes activity as the pace hots up on the project with a $12 billion price tag.
The AI programme - on which 800 people are already working - has so far cost $500 million on research and preliminary design. AI says it has met its goal of achieving 15% better direct operating costs than the Boeing 747. Work to date includes wind tunnel testing and runway loading trials. Entry into service is planned for 2005.
The first planned aircraft is the A3XX-100 which would seat 555 passengers in a three-class layout. The A3XX-200 would seat 656 passengers in three classes. Longer range, freighter and combi versions are also planned.
Asia-Pacific is the key region for the A3XX, with well-suited route structures and the sort of innovative airlines such as Singapore Airlines that could make the most of the potential offered by aircraft.
With the region past the economic problems of 1997/98, long-term forecasts show continued confidence in air traffic growth.
The most recent projections from the International Civil Aviation Organisation suggest that the number of passengers on trans-Pacific routes will grow from 26 million in 1998 to 72 million in 2014. Growth on intra-Asia-Pacific routes will grow from 67 million to 145 million over the same period. The increases represent an average annual growth rate of 6.6% for the trans-Pacific and 4.9% for intra Asia-Pacific.
Such growth in passenger traffic should translate into a doubling of aircraft movements across the Pacific, from some 132,000 in 1998 to about 264,000 in 2014 - an average growth rate of 4.4%.
The initial A3XX-100 with its 7,650nm (14,200km) range would allow non-stop flights on heavily-travelled routes such as Sydney-Los Angeles, Singapore-London or Hong Kong-San Francisco. Projections suggest that by 2018, of the top 10 routes operated by very large aircraft, eight will be in Asia-Pacific. Six of the 10 airports most frequently served by these aircraft are located in the region, including Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo Narita.
In keeping with the AI philosophy of commonality across its aircraft, the A3XX will offer a cockpit instantly recognisable by any A320 or A330/A340 family pilot. That translates into flexibility of operation and reduced costs of training.
The aircraft will be powered by four engines, either the Trent 900 from Rolls-Royce or the GP7200 from the Engine Alliance of GE and Pratt & Whitney.
Source: Flight Daily News
