Singapore could be a springboard to success on a wider scale for one of four manufacturers striving to win a key deal with the republic’s air force
Four aircraft manufacturers are battling to win a competition in Singapore that could prove to be an important turning point in their drive to establish their new basic trainers worldwide.
|
With all new design, choosing the PC-21 might be seen as a risk by SIngapore |
Singapore is evaluating this month the Aermacchi M311, Embraer EMB-314 Super Tucano, Pilatus PC-21 and Raytheon T-6B. Written proposals for the lease of about 20 basic trainers from 2008 are scheduled to be submitted this week and all four aircraft will be flight tested by the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) in conjunction with Asian Aerospace 2006, where all the aircraft except the Super Tucano will perform in the daily flying display.
Three of the manufacturers – Aermacchi, Pilatus and Raytheon – hope to secure Singapore as the launch customer for their new basic trainers and believe winning the Singapore competition could spur on sales elsewhere. For Embraer, Singapore would be the second export customer for the Super Tucano after Colombia and the first operator of the proposed unarmed variant.
Several countries including Australia, Chile, Israel, Turkey, the UK and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are also now looking to acquire new basic trainers. But none of them are planning to make a selection until after Singapore awards its contract, which is scheduled to occur in the third quarter of this year.
“Singapore in timing is certainly the first,” says Aermacchi chief executive Carmelo Cosentino. “But there are also now other interested countries in this segment of the market... I believe there is a good market for this segment of training.”
Turkey kicked off a competition last month with a request for proposals (RFP) for 36 basic trainers and a selection is expected late this year or early next. The UK is expected to ask for bids late this year or early next for the basic trainer element of its Military Flying Training System (MFTS) programme. Israel has already released a request for information and may issue an RFP by year-end.
“The UK MFTS and Israel are not too far down the horizon and Australia not much later,” says Raytheon T-6 regional manager for Asia Pacific and Israel, Jim DeGarmo.
Australia is looking at potentially combining basic training operations with Singapore, which uses Pearce airbase outside Perth for basic pilot training. Australia participated as an observer in Singapore’s first round of flight evaluations in the second half of last year, at the factories of the four shortlisted manufacturers.
Singapore advantage
The RSAF says it will conduct “an update on these evaluations” before, during and after the air show. VIPs from several countries plan to fly the four trainers during the show. The Super Tucano’s tight VIP flight schedule, including a visit to another Asian country immediately after the air show, forced Embraer to withdraw from the flying display. The manufacturers believe the winner in Singapore will have an advantage when Australia launches its own competition for up to 50 new trainers, although this is not expected for about another five years.
|
US Airforce and Navy will keep the T-6 in production till 2017 |
The UAE also has begun evaluating new basic trainers and has expressed interest along with Jordan and others in potentially pursuing a joint solution for the Middle East. But it is always unpredictable when the UAE or any country in the region will move forward on a military aircraft acquisition.
“The biggest opportunity is in the emerging market in the Middle East,” says DeGarmo. “But we’re not sure how the market will exactly shape up. We will keep our eye on it.”
Over the short term, the manufacturers agree that Asia Pacific has the most promise, starting with Singapore. Several other Asian countries including Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines also have ageing trainer fleets and DeGarmo says rebounding economies in the region could finally provide their air forces with enough cash to buy replacements.
Overall, the market seems rosier compared with the last several years, which have only seen the selection of a new basic trainer in a few countries including Greece in 1999, Ireland in 2003 and Colombia at the end of last year. “We haven’t had a competition in some time,” says DeGarmo, who elected not to offer the T-6 in Colombia, lost to the Pilatus PC-9 in Ireland and won with the T-6A in Greece.
Turning market
“It’s been a pretty soft market for several years, but it’s starting to pick up,” DeGarmo says.
Pilatus vice-president Jim Roche projects a market for 2,000 basic trainers over the next 20 years and says “we expect we’ll take a large part of that requirement”. Pilatus is discussing selling the PC-21 domestically to the Swiss air force and to several potential foreign operators including the UAE, where the aircraft made its international air show debut last November. Pilatus is still looking for a launch customer, although it is expected to soon finalise a deal with the Swiss air force for at least six PC-21s.
“We’re in discussions with many air forces,” says Roche. “The signing of a contract is just a formality.”
Embraer also sees a large potential export market for the Super Tucano and is trying to extend its production line beyond 2008, when the last of 99 aircraft for the Brazilian air force will be delivered. Singapore is requiring 2008 deliveries while several other nations could follow in the 2009-10 timeframe.
“We see it as a very positive market for us. We have forecast for huge numbers of training and operational capability aircraft,” says Embraer director of international business Eduardo Munhos de Campos.
Raytheon is guaranteed a production line through at least 2017 based on the manufacture of over 700 T-6As required by the US Air Force and US Navy. It expects international sales of the T-6B, an upgraded version of the T-6A, will supplement current production and extend the line beyond 2017. “Obviously we hope to nail some international customers to keep the line going after that,” says DeGarmo.
Raytheon already has delivered T-6As to international customers, including 45 to the Greek air force and 26 to NATO Flying Training in Canada (NFTC), which trains pilots from seven countries including Singapore. Turboprops have dominated the market since the T-6A won the US Air Force/US Navy Joint Primary Aircraft Training Systems (JPATS) competition in 1995. But Aermacchi is banking that the M311, the only jet in the Singapore competition, will end this trend.
Jet challenge
“Since JPATS several air forces have imitated the Americans, using turboprops for basic training,” says Cosentino. “Today’s situation is different. With the M311, we’ve launched a challenge. If the air force wants a jet-like turboprop, why not buy a jet at the same price? This is a winning proposal we are presenting to the market.”
Cosentino claims the acquisition, operating and maintenance costs for the M311 are similar to propeller-powered trainers in the same size category. But Aermacchi’s competitors still believe the economics of propeller aircraft are far superior and air forces requiring new basic trainers will continue to reject jets.
“When you look at the economics it makes more sense to do the job with the turboprop,” Munhos says. “The most logical choice today is for the turboprop.”
DeGarmo adds: “Any claim a jet can match a turboprop in economics is a stretch of the imagination.”
Embraer, Pilatus and Raytheon concede Singapore could opt for the M311 because it may have a preference for jets and could be reluctant to switch gears after using the M311’s predecessor, the S211 jet, for basic training for over 20 years. But they do not expect the M311 to be seriously considered in most of the other countries looking for new basic trainers and they say Singapore may also opt for a turboprop out of a concern the M311 will be difficult to support. The S211 had a lacklustre sales run, with Singapore, Haiti and the Philippines the only customers, and as a result the aircraft has not been easy to support. The M311, which is an upgrade of the S211, may have similar problems if few sales are generated. “Singapore knows what they are now paying for S211 operations,” says DeGarmo. “It will be hard to pull wool over their eyes.”
Pilatus’ Roche concedes selecting the M311 would allow Singapore to avoid changing some of its ground-based infrastructure already in place at Pearce. But he adds: “As Singaporeans look forward long term to the [Lockheed Martin] Joint Strike Fighter and the [Boeing] F-15 it is easier to take the pain now and switch rather than do the switch in the future.”
All-new design
Switching to the PC-21, however, may also be seen as too risky for the traditionally risk averse Singaporeans. Developed in 1999, the PC-21 is the only aircraft in the competition that features an all-new design. The programme also has been marred by the January 2005 crash of one of its prototypes.
The M311 is even newer, but is only a redesigned version of the S211. The prototype M311 was originally developed as the S211A for the JPATS competition. After several years in storage, it was dusted off in 2005 and upgraded last year to M311 configuration just in time to fly at the Paris air show.
The Super Tucano is more proven, having entered service in 2004 with the Brazilian air force. Today over 30 are operating in Brazil and a total of 99 aircraft have been sold to Brazil, plus another 25 to Colombia. Munhos says the Super Tucano being offered to Singapore “will be a little different. There will be some small changes.” The biggest change is the elimination of all weaponry. The Brazilian aircraft is designed to carry weapons and Colombia also has acquired the armed variant. The Super Tucano itself is based on a proven aircraft, the EMB-312 Tucano, which is still in operation with more than 10 air forces worldwide.
The T-6A is also a proven aircraft with over 350 in service. While Raytheon has not yet chalked up an order for its T-6B, it is heavily promoting its 98% parts commonality with the T-6A. The manufacturer believes the US government’s promise to support the T-6A over the next several decades gives it a big advantage over its less mature competitors.
“Any future customer benefits from the fact we are a mature system,” says DeGarmo. “[Also] we’re the only company in the competition with a fully integrated training system.” Raytheon has added an embedded training capability, head-up display and multifunction displays for the T-6B. Raytheon’s T-6B prototype has been flying since March 2004 and made its air show debut that year at Farnborough.
“Singapore is the first competition that requires all of the capability in the B model,” says DeGarmo. “But almost everyone in the world is now looking for an enhanced capability in their primary trainer.”
The PC-21, M311 and Super Tucano have similar enhanced capabilities, including digital glass cockpits, head-up displays and colour liquid-crystal multifunction displays. All the aircraft are designed to provide a cockpit experience that mimics the latest generation of fighters.
Most of the aircraft also have an optional weapon delivery capability although Singapore only requires a virtual or synthetic weapon delivery capability. Singapore requires embedded training and modern displays that can simulate the F-16’s Northrop Grumman APG-68 radar.
“The new trainer must have good handling qualities to allow a trainee with little flight experience to quickly learn how to control the aircraft,” says Singapore air force chief Maj Gen Lim Kim Choon. “In addition, the trainer should have modern avionics to introduce systems management to future pilots. They will need these skill sets as they progress to operational platforms. Finally we seek an aircraft that allows the handing of some training from our advanced training platforms.”
Singapore will be purchasing its next primary trainer on a per hour basis under a private finance initiative (PFI) or private-public partnership (PPP). It does not specify exactly how many trainers are required, but the prime contractor must guarantee at least 14 aircraft are on line every day, which translates roughly into a requirement for a 20-aircraft fleet.
Guaranteed hours
The contractor must also guarantee about 7,000 block hours a year and provide enough capacity for about 42 sorties a day and a surge capability for up to 50 sorties a day. Enough aircraft must be delivered at the beginning of the contract to support about 300 hours of flight training in the first month of the new operation.
The deadline for submitting bids, initially set for the middle of last year, was delayed several times as Singapore struggled to come to grips with PFI terminology. The last delay pushed back the deadline from 2 to 16 February. The invitation to tender, finally released early last year, was also delayed several times following the release of the first of two requests for information back in 2002. Some of the manufacturers say some of Singapore’s initial demands were unrealistic and it could not understand it was buying a service rather than a platform. “This is not easy,” says Cosentino. “It is very complex and risky for all contenders.”
Another bidder says: “The proposal is way more complex than the aircraft. You have to offer a complete service over 20 years.”
Lim says Singapore is pursuing a PPP to reduce costs and risks. “First, by leveraging on commercial efficiencies and practices, costs can be lowered,” he says. “Innovative solutions like joint operations with other customers would not be feasible with traditional procurement methodologies. Second, we are able to better distribute the risks. For example, issues of technological obsolescence are risks that are effectively transferred to the private sector, while the RSAF retains certain risks better borne by the government.”
Turnkey training
Aermacchi is the only manufacturer that has opted to seek a prime role in the programme and will own the M311s should it be selected by Singapore. But it has teamed up with Qantas Defence Systems to provide maintenance and NFTC operator Bombardier to help provide a turnkey training solution. Lockheed Martin is the prime behind the PC-21 bid, with Hawker Pacific the local provider; and Israel’s Elbit Systems is the prime behind the Super Tucano offer, with Perth-based Airflite providing maintenance.
Raytheon has teamed with Singapore Technologies Aerospace (ST Aero), which will own and maintain the T-6Bs should they win the competition. The fact ST Aero is the only local company to submit a prime bid and is the incumbent maintenance provider at Pearce could give the T-6B a big advantage.
After the tender was issued early last year, several companies pursued prime roles and initially it seemed there would be multiple bids involving some of the shortlisted aircraft. But after a lot of jockeying among the interested companies and clarification from Singapore on the requirement, only four bids are expected to be submitted.
“The prime contractor could offer more than one platform, but as things transpired it has become a unique platform to each prime,” says Roche.
“You can’t partner everybody so you need to pick who you think meets the requirement best,” says ST Aero president Tay Kok Khiang. “The Raytheon product is the more established product and is in service in a major way with the US Air Force. Some of the [other] products in the competition have not seen any uses and others have seen only limited uses.”
ST Aero last year was selected to supply five Eurocopter EC120 helicopters from November for Singapore’s smaller helicopter pilot training programme. Tay says the company may extend its partnerships with Raytheon and pursue training contracts overseas.
“It’s certainly possible to bring it outside Singapore, but whether its attractive to us depends [on the programme’s size]. A small one may not be viable for us.” Elbit and Lockheed are also considering extending their partnerships with Embraer and Pilatus to Israel and other potential PFI basic trainer customers.
BRENDAN SOBIE / SINGAPORE
Source: Flight International
