Kevin O'Toole/LONDON
Julian Moxon/PARIS
Paul Lewis/DUBAI
WITH THE SINGAPORE Airlines decision now announced, the first round in the battle of the big twins is drawing to a close. There are still a couple of major orders in prospect, but the initial round of cut-throat competitions between the Boeing 777 and Airbus A330/340 family have been settled.
By early 1996, all of the basic aircraft and engine permutations will have gone into service, giving both airframers and engine manufacturers time to assess where they now stand and, more importantly, where they go next.
On the current standings, Boeing appears to be ready to pull ahead. With the Singapore and Saudia decisions going to the 777, the programme now has a highly respectable tally of 230 firm orders. There are another 140 options, which stand a reasonable chance of being converted into future orders given the strength of the customer airlines.
By contrast, the Airbus A330 total has been marooned at little above the 100 mark for the best part of three years after the initial burst of launch orders. The A340, with 147 firm orders to date, puts the family total at a more creditable 266, but still within easy striking distance of the 777.
So far this year, Airbus has netted just seven A330 orders and the A340 a meager four. Even in 1994, when the European consortium made great play of the fact that it had beaten Boeing in sales for the first time ever, the A330 did not have a single order.
The existing A330 order book is less than solid in places, with industry onlookers raising question marks over the reliability of orders and options from customers such as GPA, Northwest Airlines and Trans World Airlines.
Although the market appears to be swinging in favour of Seattle, the balance could still shift either way. The battle for Malaysia Airlines is the last of the big contests now in progress, although a fresh wave of competitions is likely some time in the next year as the so-far uncommitted US carriers and, possibly, the leasing companies begin to declare their hands.
The emerging pattern appears to be that the 777 is winning out in terms of size, helped by the occasional political decision in favour of a US manufacturer. The demand from customers is for the aircraft to get bigger still. Boeing's 420-seat 777-300 version garnered 36 orders from its launch in June at Paris. Others are likely to switch existing orders to these larger types as they come into service.
Singapore Airlines is typical. Its base order is for 28 of the heavier 777-200IGW version, but says it that it will move up to bigger or extended-range types as they appear on the market.
Both airframers, having seen the basic types safely launched into the market, have entered the next round of the competition looking to offer a series of stretches, shrinks and extended ranges.
Airbus, keen to find a new niche for its big twin, is placing top priority on the development of a longer-range version of the A330, called the A330-M10.
The shortened, 250-seat, aircraft, which is due for a launch before the end of the year, is targeted against the Boeing 767-300ER, offering what Airbus claims will be a more modern and cheaper alternative. It claims a 9% advantage on direct operating costs and range of up to 11,800km (6,400nm).
Boeing has moved quickly to protect its territory. A study was already under way to offer customers an ultra-long-haul 777-100X, with a projected range of 15,700km. This has now been joined by a study into a lower-gross-weight offering, designed to see off the threat of the A330M10.
This new, shrunk, aircraft would combine the 8,300km range of the 777-200 with the lower 220-seat capacity of the 777-100X, so yielding considerably better fuel consumption.
Boeing suggests that both the lower-gross-weight and ultra-long-range 777-100X could be launched simultaneously, provided that there is sufficient demand. It is hoping for a programme go ahead in 1996, and to deliver its first 777-100X by 1999.
Airbus is also responding to the range issue, with proposals for an A340-8000 capable of flying 14,800km. The aim is to tempt Pacific Rim carriers with a product which will give non-stop flights on routes such as those between Hong Kong and the US east coast, or Australia and Europe.
Air Canada has put in a prospective order for two of the long-range aircraft, but Airbus is searching for bigger numbers before going ahead with a full launch. The aim is to have the aircraft available from 1997.
Further away is the A340-400, a stretched, and possibly re-engine, addition to the A340 family, which could be available some time around the year 2000, provided that there is sufficient airline demand. This would offer the range of the A340-300, but with capacity for around 380 seats, bringing it in line with the Boeing 777-300.
Other studies at Toulouse are investigating a stretch for the A330-300, and re-engine the A340-8000 with the power plants used for the A340-400, to create an aircraft capable of flying round the world with a single stop.
Boeing's next priority, beyond completing the basic 777 family, is launching the 747-500X and 747-600X stretch. The company is also continuing to look at ways of revitalising its smaller products, with new versions of the 757 and 767.
The proposed 757-200X development would add 1,100km to the aircraft's range through the addition of belly fuel-tanks. The aircraft is aimed primarily, at US and international 757 operators, such as American Airlines and British Airways, wanting to open up thinner, longer range, transcontinental and transatlantic routes.
Interest is also being expressed in a 757-300X stretch aircraft, seating approximately 20% more passengers and 10% lower operating costs, but retaining the 757's existing 7,400km range.
A third study under way centres on a 7m fuselage stretch of the 767-300 twinjet, intended as a replacement for the McDonnell Douglas DC-10. The proposed -400X would offer a 15-20% increase in seats, 25% more lower-hold volume and a 7-10% cut in seat-kilometre costs. A maximum range of 9,600km is envisaged, with no increase in the aircraft's gross weight.
Whatever finally emerges from the design studies now proliferating from both Seattle and Toulouse, expect to see the two rivals match each other - model for model.
Source: Flight International
