Output for the regional manufacturers declined to its lowest level for decades in 2006, largely due to the collapse of the 50-seat regional jet market, writes Max Kingsley-Jones.
According to the latest Flight International airframers' forecast, regional airliner deliveries declined to about 250 aircraft in 2006, a fall of 14% on 2005 and the lowest level since the 1980s. Some 200 of these were jets and the rest turboprops. Confirmation of these numbers is expected in the coming weeks when the manufacturers declare their 2006 orders and shipments.
Last year's fall happened because of the rapid decline in demand for the 50-seat regional jet types - the Bombardier CRJ200 and Embraer ERJ-145 family - production of which has effectively been suspended. Although the high fuel price has driven a rise in demand for turboprops, production has not yet risen enough to compensate for the drop in jet output.
This year should see deliveries rise again to around 300, as output of the ATR 42/72 and Bombardier Dash 8 Q Series turboprops grows further and production of large regional jets increases.
The most recent peak in regional airliner output occurred in 2000/2001, with deliveries exceeding 420 aircraft in each year, of which over 70% were jets. The sector's highest peak occurred at the beginning of the 1990s, when the 19-seat turboprop boom drove annual regional deliveries to around 450 aircraft. At that time, jet deliveries accounted for just 10% of the total.
According to Flight International's records, regional aircraft production has averaged 340 aircraft a year since the beginning of the 1990s, but after the 2000/2001 peak, it has been gradually declining below this level for the past three years.
Source: Flight International
