Boeing bosses have bumped up their predictions for the number of large widebodies airlines will buy over the next 20 years.
This is the first significant increase in the US manufacturer's forecast for 747-size and larger airliners since the 1990s and comes as it sees greater long-term demand in the sector that includes the rival Airbus A380.
Boeing unveiled its 2005 current market outlook (CMO) last week.
The forecast covers the 20 year period 2005-2024.
Greater
Vice-president marketing Randy Baseler says that the forecast for aircraft with 400 seats and above, and "large freighters" (with payloads greater than 65t), has increased from 790 units last year to 900 - comprising 590 new passenger aircraft and 310 new freighters.
He adds that the 15% increase "is largely driven by the growth we've being seeing in Asia during the last year".
The 900 units are split roughly 50:50 between the 747 category (400-500 seats) and the A380 (500 seats and above).
By comparison, Airbus predicts a market for 1,650 airliners/freighters in the 450-seat and above category over the next 20 years.
Last year, Boeing revised its forecast for the large aircraft category downwards by around 20% from 970 in 2003.
Baseler denied that the sudden increased optimism is connected to the fact that Boeing is preparing to launch a stretched 747 derivative, the 450-seat Advanced.
Overall, Boeing's CMO predicts that 25,700 new airliners and freighters will be delivered over the next 20 years worth $2.1 trillion, with the bulk of the demand being for single-aisle aircraft which represent 60% (15,300 units) of the total.
Deliveries
The remainder will be made up of 3,900 regional jets, 5,600 mid-size twin-aisle aircraft and the 900 400-seaters and above.
The new deliveries will see the world's airline fleet expand to 35,300 units by 2024, with 7,200 replacing aircraft in service today and a further 18,500 being required to cover growth.
Around 9,600 aircraft flying today will still be in service in 2024, predicts Baseler.
On the cargo front, Boeing forecasts that the freighter fleet will double from 1,760 units to 3,530, but three-quarter of these will be modified passenger aircraft.
The combined value of the 720 new freighters required is put at $155 billion.
Source: Flight Daily News
