Chris Jasper/LONDON Guy Norris/LOS ANGELES
Boeing chairman and chief executive Phil Condit has made a make-or-break trip to Japan to persuade the country's government and aerospace sector to part-fund the 747X programme.
Tokyo sources suggest the decision could go either way. Japanese failure to back the 747X would be a major setback.
Boeing, which claims development costs for the 500-seater remain at "around $4 billion", has been negotiating Japan's participation in the 747X for several months. Japanese industry sources say Boeing has offered it about 20% of the programme, including main wing sub-assemblies and the centre torque box. Corresponding investment would be as high as $1 billion, although Boeing will not confirm this.
Tokyo has three concerns:
• Given that it is based on a 30-year-old airframe, the 747X may fail to provide "breakthrough" technology and expertise;
• Due to competition from the Airbus A3XX, and as it has little further growth potential, the 747X may offer poor investment returns;
• Other Boeing projects in which Japan invested failed to reach production - including the 7J7, YS-X and the recent 747-500/600.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), with which Boeing signed an agreement to expand aerospace co-operation earlier this year, is leading discussions on the 747X, with Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Fuji Heavy Industries also on board. MHI is to present a feasibility study to the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) by December.
MITI, which is advised by an expert Aircraft Industry Council, is not bound by the terms of the large commercial aircraft agreement between Europe and the USA, and could provide up to 50% of Japanese investment in the 747X. The refundable aid is usually supplied to the Japan Aircraft Development Corp for distribution, on top of which the Japan Development Bank may provide "soft" loans.
MITI most recently funded Japanese participation in the 777, with $500 million of aid securing a 21% airframe workshare. A similar amount was contributed in loans.
Boeing issued authority to offer the 747X in May, but Condit says launch is still dependent on "making the business case". A "go/no-go" decision is on the agenda of a 7 December meeting to be led by Boeing Commercial president Alan Mulally, with the outcome dependent on signing up International Lease Finance and FedEx for freighter versions of the aircraft, which would be available ahead of the A3XXF.
Source: Flight International
