Boeing global fleet forecast rises with first-time CIS inclusion

Boeing is expecting global demand for new aircraft to reach 28,600 over the next two decades, although the 5% increase on last year’s figure is largely due to its inclusion, for the first time, of the former Soviet Union in its assessment.

Figures released by the US airframer today, in its latest 20-year market outlook, show that 18,200 aircraft will be required to meet growth demand.

Another 10,400 will be used as replacements for the current fleet. The total value of these aircraft is put at $2.8 trillion.

But around 1,000 of the aircraft featured in the projection will be taken up by the states of the former Soviet Union.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes marketing vice-president Randy Tinseth, speaking at a briefing in London today, said this meant there was little increase in the overall demand since Boeing’s 2006 outlook.

He argues this is the result of airlines’ substituting aircraft in their present fleets for higher-capacity types – moving from 50-seat to 70-seat aircraft, for example, or from regional types to single-aisle jets – as well as carriers’ ability to extract higher utilisation and achieve greater load factors.

“Aircraft will be more productive,” he says. The current global fleet will double from 18,200 to 36,400 aircraft but nearly 80% of the fleet in 2026 will comprise new-build models.

Demand for single-aisle types will remain strong, with some 17,650 deliveries, accounting for 62% of the total. The proportion of twin-aisle aircraft will stay largely static at 22% or 6,290 jets.

The requirement for large types – such as the Boeing 747 or Airbus A380 – will reach 960. Around 590 of these large aircraft will be for the passenger market, the other 370 will be freighters.

Regional aircraft will make up 13% of the demand, about 3,700 deliveries. Tinseth says that this is a large number of aircraft but their relatively small financial value means that Boeing is still not interested in participating in this market.

Tinseth says the forecast assumes passenger traffic will rise at 5% per year and cargo traffic will increase by 6.1% per year.

The Asia-Pacific region’s 6.7% traffic growth rate, he adds, will make it the largest commercial aviation market by 2026.

Asia-Pacific carriers will account for 29% of new deliveries and 36% of their financial value.

North America will take 32% of deliveries, but only 26% of the sale value, while 23% of deliveries and 25% of sales will be in Europe, Russia and the CIS countries.

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Source: FlightGlobal.com