As the North American market continues to mature, Boeing predicts moderate traffic growth in the region during the next 20 years of roughly 3.4%.
It is a slight rise from the 3.2% growth Boeing estimated in its 2009 annual 20-year forecast, but the airframer has scaled down its prediction of the number of new aircraft deliveries set for the region.
Boeing believes operators in North America will accept delivery of 7,200 new aircraft in the next 20 years valued at around $700 billion, compared with an estimate of 7,690 new aircraft valued at $680 billion in the company's 2009 forecast.
Factoring in aircraft retirement, Boeing believes the North American fleet should grow to 9,000 by 2029, a 36.6% increase from current fleet counts of 6,590, but below an estimate of 9,700 released a year ago.
Single-aisle aircraft will continue to serve as the backbone of the North American fleet, growing from 56% of the total aircraft operating in the region today to 71% in 2029. Over the next 20 years Boeing estimates demand for 1,180 new twin-aisle aircraft among North American operators that should account for 16% for total aircraft demand in the region.
However, Boeing sees those aircraft types as having a proportionally higher delivery costs at roughly 37% of the overall investment in new aircraft during the forecast period.
Demand for aircraft the size of Boeing's 747 will continue to be insignificant, with the 40 units forecasted for delivery during the 20-year period accounting for 1% of the total investment. Boeing expects all the large aircraft delivered in that time to be freighter variants.
Regional jets should also only comprise a small portion of the North American fleet during the next 20 years, says Boeing. Its estimates show 800 deliveries comprising 4% of total investment as carriers shift to more fuel-efficient turboprops and larger jet models.
In its forecast Boeing says that after several years of massive losses, the North American market, led by low-cost operators, is showing signs of improvement. However, despite modest profit, the airframer says "traditional airlines are holding back on large-scale fleet renewals".
Source: Flight International
