US manufacturer sticks to belief that size of large-airliner market will continue fall, but Airbus likely to disagree
In its latest 20-year forecast, Boeing is committed to its route fragmentation argument and has again revised downwards the size of the large-airliner market. Its overall long-term outlook remains bullish despite the current crisis, with total demand estimated at 23,900 aircraft, worth almost $1.8 trillion - slightly up on the 2001 forecast of 23,500 units.
The US manufacturer's forecast for aircraft that are Boeing 747-sized and larger (carrying more than 400 passengers) has dropped to below 1,000 units, compared to 1,100 in 2001. "We put demand at around 950 aircraft, which is 4% of the total market over 20 years," says Randy Baseler, vice president of marketing at Boeing. The figure is down 14% because Boeing sees increasing evidence that route fragmentation will drive demand for smaller aircraft as airlines fly more point-to-point services and bypass congested hubs.
Baseler sees the majority of aircraft required in the large category being in the 400-500 seat sector with demand estimated at about 390 units. The size of the 500-plus seat sector is put at 330 aircraft. "About 260 large freighters will also be needed," adds Baseler. Of these, around 170 will be in the larger of the two size categories.
Airbus has not published a forecast since 2000 as last year's was dropped following the US terrorist attacks. Airbus vice-president market forecast Adam Brown says that the 2002 outlook is being finalised and will be published in September. "There will be no substantial shift in our forecast for very large aircraft," says Brown. In the last forecast, this stood at 1,240 passenger aircraft and a further 300 freighters.
Notable by its absence in the Boeing forecast is an estimate of demand for high-speed airliners, such as the Sonic Cruiser. "We estimate demand by aircraft category, but for the Sonic Cruiser we need to look at demand by passenger type to determine demand for the speed premium," says Baseler. "We still have to figure out the value of speed," he adds.
Boeing predicts that 57% of the 23,900 aircraft delivered over the next 20 years will be in the single- aisle category (such as 717/737/ 757s); 21% in the twin-aisle category (767/777), and 18% in the regional-jet sector (less than 90 seats). The biggest single market in dollar terms will be the twin-aisle category, according to Boeing, which is worth around $750 billion - 42% of the total.
Source: Flight International
