Boeing has issued another strong 20-year freighter fleet forecast against growing speculation that the company is studying accelerating a go/no-go decision for its proposed 747 Advanced project, widely expected to be led by the freighter version if launched.
Although officially not expected to make its formal "authority to offer" decision in 2005, with a possible programme launch in late 2006, sources close to the project suggest consideration is being given to bringing forward to later this year a decision to continue product development. The stretched 747 project is dependent on derivatives of the engines being developed for the 7E7, meaning that entry into service remains 2009 at the earliest.
Boeing denies that any decision is to be made soon, and the company says that there has been "no change" to the announced 747 Advanced timescale.
Internally, Boeing is known, however, to be debating putting the product development focus on its 777-200XLRF, a proposed 110t (242,000lb) -payload long-range freighter variant based on the 777-200LR platform.
This aircraft could enter service "late in the decade", says Boeing, bringing it into head-to-head competition with the 747 Advanced for development dollars.
In its latest market forecast released on 12 August, Boeing continues to predict strong demand for cargo aircraft, and for large widebodied freighters in particular.
Aircraft in this category, 65t and above, range from the Airbus A340 and McDonnell Douglas DC-10 to the Airbus A380, Boeing MD-11 and 747 and are expected to account for 60% of the world fleet by 2023 compared with 44% today.
Between now and 2023, Boeing forecasts 436 new deliveries, 270 retirements and 492 conversions in this category. In all, it predicts 2,950 cargo aircraft will enter the fleet and 1,290 will be retired - the biggest group of which (857) are expected to come in the narrowbody category.
This sector also accounts for the largest conversion market of any group, with 1,184 forecast.
The medium widebody sector, covering the 40-65t range, is expected to see 236 new deliveries over the period. Around 133 are expected to be retired and a further 550 converted.
Overall, Boeing forecasts around 2,226 conversions in all categories between now and 2023.
GUY NORRIS / LOS ANGELES
Source: Flight International
