Of all the questions posed going into the Paris air show - the status of the Airbus A350, Bombardier's CSeries order count - the one that remained unanswered concerned Boeing's plans in the narrowbody segment.
However, the air show provided a clue as to what customers want from Seattle. Boeing's stalwart 737 customers quietly - and some not so quietly - cast their vote in favor of what the airframer calls the New Small Airplane.
Norwegian chief executive Bjorn Kjos told a room of journalists he was "lining up in the queue to tell Boeing to build a new aircraft".
Air Lease's Steven Udvar-Hazy employed the pages of the Seattle Times to send his message: "We're ready to sit down [with Boeing] and make a deal on a new airplane, that's how strongly we feel."
Contemplating Ryanair's possible 200-aircraft order with China's Comac, Morgan Stanley industry analyst Heidi Wood described the move as "dual-pronged", sending a loud message to Boeing's Chicago headquarters: "Notice served; Ryanair wants a new plane."
Even all-Boeing operator American Airlines's pursuit of the A321neo to replace its 757s, as reported by Bloomberg News, was the carrier's way of saying the 737, re-engined or otherwise, is not enough. The story shot a bolt of panic through Seattle as its "cannot-lose" customers expressed their views.
The message is far from subtle: Boeing's customers want an all-new aircraft, yet the decision for "market-driven" Boeing is not so simple.
Paris demonstrated that the Airbus A320neo had accomplished one thing - Airbus has found an effective means to lock in its customer base for another decade. Boeing's maths may tell it today's 737 is still 2% more cost effective to operate (including maintenance costs) than the A320neo, yet despite that claimed 2% disadvantage, Airbus's customers continued to make big investments in the re-engined jet.
A clean-sheet New Small Airplane would be a complete break from today's 737, unencumbered by commonality in both parts and pilot type rating, and by its very definition would unlock Boeing's 737 customer base to disregard switching costs between types as it considered the A320neo against the NSA.
The relatively low-cost investment by Airbus to develop the A320neo, with a claimed 15% improvement in fuel burn over the baseline A320, could also give the European airframer the ability to use price to flip Boeing customers who have been unlocked from the 737NG.
"If we did a new small airplane," insisted Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice-president of business development and strategic integration Nicole Piasecki. "We would not do a plan that has us losing market share. We would have a plan that would have us gaining market share. That means that we have to understand with confidence how to keep our exising customer and base and grow it.
"And that means, again, the NG is going to stay in production for a long period of time and that family is competitive as possible as well. So we will not abandon the NG, at the same time we are going through the transition," emphasising the 737-plus developments for the next tranche of incremental improvements to the narrowbody, which will provide a technological bridge to a new single-aisle aircraft.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes president and chief executive Jim Albaugh is unapologetic, however, about the price tag of its narrowbody: "Our view is the 737 should command a higher price and we charge a higher price because of the capability it provides," he said, adding that a re-engined 737 or an all-new airplane would be no different.
But whether Boeing likes it or not, Airbus is playing a cost game while Boeing is playing a value game, prompting price-sensitive airlines and lessors to invariably weigh the value of efficiency and fuel burn against an up-front price cut.
Source: Flight International
