The fatal crash of a TAM Airbus A320 in mid-July has become the catalyst for Brazil to address its growing backlog of air transport ills, even though the inquiry into the crash may show that those ills did not cause it
TAM's overrun of a wet runway at São Paulo's Congonhas airport killed 199 people and sent Brazil into a mixed state of national grief and outrage. The accident was the proverbial straw, the climax to a string of mishaps that included last September's mid-air collision between a Gol Boeing 737 and a business jet, killing 154 people. As if to underscore how bad things have become, three days after TAM's tragedy, faulty Brazilian radar grounded long-range flights throughout South America with ripple effects as far as North America.
Even though the early investigation into TAM's crash points to possible pilot error, Brazil's public and politicians could hardly be blamed for pointing fingers at the country's neglected aviation system. After all, at least four other flights in recent months skidded off the Congonhas runway during rain, fortunately with less horrific results. As Armando Schneider, a superintendent for Infraero - the agency that oversees 67 Brazilian airports - told investigators, any pilot who lands at Congonhas needs "a little adrenaline".
A short slippery runway in a crowded city is only part of Brazil's problem. Outdated equipment, overworked air traffic controllers, and a growing maintenance backlog are all products of a government, like many others, that has resorted to band-aid solutions instead of investing in upgrades and expansion.
Brazil's problem has been aggravated by its unprecedented traffic growth. Gol has been Latin America's most successful low-cost carrier. Since its launch six years ago, it has grown like a weed thanks to market stimulation from low fares. Brazil's annual air traffic growth over the past three years has averaged 18%. This surge has caught planners unprepared and helped cause the current crisis.
The initial steps to solve it started with a purge. A week after TAM's crash Brazilian President Lula da Silva sacked the defence minister, who oversees air traffic control. Lula then called for mass resignations by all air traffic control directors. The new defence minister Nelson Jobim then replaced the head of Infraero. Brazil's lawmakers launched their own investigation into the accident and demanded a report from Infraero on São Paulo's two airports, Congonhas and Guarulhos, and the prospects for a third.
Lula's chief of staff next announced that the government would redraw Brazil's air traffic map. Jobim had barely taken office as the new defence minister when he issued an order slashing Congonhas flights by 21%, or 151 a day.
Jobim says Congonhas only can be used for flights of two hours or less. He ordered airlines that schedule Congonhas connections to move them elsewhere, thus limiting the airport to point-to-point traffic. He diverted all general aviation to another airport.
TAM and Gol are shifting Congonhas flights to Guarulhos, but São Paulo's international airport faces its own limits. One runway is scheduled for repair, which hinders the airport's ability to absorb more flights. Even when all runways are open, Guarulhos has no more slots during peak times. Meanwhile, talk about a third São Paulo airport has only just started.
The concern is how long this ardour to fix Brazil's systems will last. It may accelerate the transfer of air traffic control from military to civilian, a move that would improve morale. In the longer term, the minister for planning says the government will re-evaluate national growth priorities and may redirect 2 billion reais ($1 billion) into airport infrastructure. Added to funds already earmarked, this could mean 5 billion reals invested in airports by 2010.
Local newspapers still report on the number of cancelled and delayed flights each day at airports throughout Brazil. Airport terminals resemble refugee camps, and buses are enjoying resurgent demand as travellers seek alternatives.
Unless Brazil's air infrastructure is fixed, traffic growth is heading for a crash. Fitch has warned that credit ratings for Brazil's airlines could suffer from "frustrated growth expectations" due to inadequate infrastructure. In July Gol revised its fleet plan to slow capacity growth. Operating income for both Gol and TAM started falling in the first quarter, and for the second quarter both carriers reported losses. How much of this is due to maturing or saturated markets is conjecture, but passengers taking the bus because they are sick of flight delays is one sign of a saturated market.
Other nations where the low-cost sector is growing should take note. Low-cost carriers may stimulate traffic more quickly than they expect. Without expenditure to stay ahead of this growth, they face a condition that may come to be called the Brazil Bottleneck.
Source: Airline Business
