While geopolitical tensions, regional wars, economic instability and supply chain issues are shaking optimism in the global business aviation market amongst owners and operator alike, demand and pricing for business jets and turboprops remains strong and the outlook for the industry over the next decade is bullish.
That is the analysis of business aviation market intelligence specialist JetNet iQ report issued at the eve of NBAA BACE.
“The industry saw a mix of rational and irrational exuberance in the post-Covid era which drove demand for new and used aircraft to unprecedented levels,” says JetNet iQ managing director Rolland Vincent.
The inventory of pre-owned business jets hit a record low of 3.5% in 2022, but has now climbed to a “very respectable” 7.5%, he says. Traditionally a healthy pre-owned inventory would represent between 10-12% of the global fleet.
Similarly, the fleet of pre-owned turboprops has climbed to 4.5% today – up from 3% in 2022. “We went through a period where aircraft were being sold without an inspection because demand was so high. That is less likely to happen now as the market slowly rebalances,” says Vincent. “But the market is still hot”.
Sales of new aircraft are also strong, with the major OEMs recording backlogs of between 18 and 24 months. By the end the second quarter, JetNet says the total value of the business jet backlog was over $51 billion, an increase of $1 billion on the previous year.
Over the next decade, the company projects deliveries of 8,600 new business jets and 4,300 turboprops with a combined value of $287 billion (in 2024 US$ terms) and “much of it back-end loaded,” says Vincent.
He describes supply chain recovery as “a stubborn and lingering challenge to production and delivery rates for the next several years.”
Sustainability is also a “key issue that must be addressed by the global industry now and into the future in order to “maintain positivity and improve the industry’s image”. Vincent argues the US manufacturers “are way behind” their European counterparts in terms of creating a sustainable community. “We must do better,” he says.
Another “equally important” task is to restore the talent pipelines of young, enthusiastic people entering the industry – and retaining them for the long term. “We lost a lot of well trained, experienced professionals during the Covid pandemic and we desperately need to replace them,” says Vincent.
