DAVID LEARMOUNT / LONDON
Hard work to improve industry safety has received a setback in the first six months of 2002
Airline safety in the first half of 2002 was dismal compared with the same period last year, which was exceptionally good. The killer accident categories that the industry hoped it was beginning to resolve, such as controlled flight into terrain (CFIT), are still a serious problem.
The disappointing statistics are revealed in Flight International's six-month review of airline safety. On 1 July, just outside the period, the year's most shocking accident occurred. The mid-air collision over southern Germany between a DHL Boeing 757 freighter and a Bashkirian Airlines passenger Tupolev Tu-154M killed 71 people.
Other accidents this year have been responsible for more deaths, but air traffic control-related accidents are extremely rare and mid-air collisions particularly horrifying. The industry's shock was heightened by the fact that the ultimate technological safety-net, the pilots' airborne collision avoidance system (ACAS), worked correctly but failed to prevent the collision because of procedural and human factors in the air, and flawed safety backup for the controller on the ground.
The Tu-154 pilots eventually followed a repeated fatal ATC instruction rather than the ACAS resolution advisory that would have saved them. There will be much industry work now to ensure that the lessons of this accident are learned worldwide.
Meanwhile the first six months of the year had their own shocks. There were 18 fatal accidents, which is not a high figure compared with averages for the decade, but seven of them involved mainline scheduled passenger jets, which is an unusually high number. In the same period last year there were no fatal accidents to mainline services, but there were five to regional airliners. This year there was only one fatal accident to a regional airliner (see accident/incident listings).
These figures leave out one of the serious fatal events, the China Northern Boeing MD-82 at Dalian in which 112 people died, on the assumption that it was not an accident but sabotage. Investigators say they are beginning to suspect the tragedy was caused deliberately. The figures would be proportionately worse if that event were included.
CFIT fatalities
A massive increase in CFIT accidents sets 2002 apart so far. Out of the 18 fatal airline accidents in the first half-year, nine appear to have been CFIT occurrences. Also, nine of the 18 accidents (not all of them CFIT crashes) have taken place during the approach and landing phase. On average, CFIT is the accident category that causes most fatalities because it involves the kind of crash least likely to have survivors. Human error was a likely factor in 13 of the 18 fatal accidents and in all of the CFIT crashes.
The number of CFIT entities will disappoint organisations such as the Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) and International Civil Aviation Organisation. They have been working hard to make airlines aware of the causes of CFIT and provide them with prevention procedures.
Because of the high proportion of CFIT accidents, the number of deaths for the year to 30 June is the highest half-year total for the past 10 years, with 716 fatalities. The only exception was the first six months of 1994, when 741 people were killed. If the Dalian event turns out to have been an accident and not sabotage, the accident fatalities for this year to the end of June would be 828.
The high incidence of approach and landings accidents is also disappointing because earlier indications suggested that the FSF's approach and landing accident reduction (ALAR) working group's studies and prevention programmes were having a beneficial effect. So far 2002 backs up the ALAR group's claim that final approaches using non-precision aids involve a far higher CFIT risk than precision approaches. Five of the approach accidents happened during non-precision let-downs or circling approaches in poor visibility.
One particularly shocking accident remains a mystery - the China Air Lines Boeing 747-200 that disintegrated at about 30,000ft (9,150m). The problem for the investigators is that the wreckage, which fell into the sea, is spread over a wide area and is highly fragmented. With less than 25% of the wreckage recovered, they say there is no evidence of an explosion causing the initial break-up. The information yielded by the flight data recorder before it was deprived of electrical power is "virtually useless", say the investigators. Unless an explosion of some kind is put back into the frame as a possible cause, the spectre of structural failure will raise questions about what checks need to be applied to older 747s.
The geographic spread of fatal accidents does not appear to be changing, with North America, Europe and Australasia showing up well as usual and the rest not so good. The exceptions are the CIS countries, which had a safe year until Bashkirian Airlines was involved in the mid-air collision.
China - which has been improving for many years, with the odd lapse - has suffered an accident and what appears to be a sabotage-caused crash this year. Taiwan's China Air Lines has continued a lamentable record with a disaster and a near-disaster (the latter an Airbus A340 take-off from taxiway at Anchorage in January - see tables). Indonesia is featured again in the statistics with Garuda's flame-out accident, fortunately with only one fatality, and two regional airline crashes. EgyptAir, Volare, Tiramavia, Djibouti, Sky Executive, Airquarius and EAS Airlines are keeping African figures poor. There were three fatal accidents in South America, which had been showing an improving trend.
Disastrous start
The first half of each year is usually the better part from the accidents point of view. The second half of 2002 has started disastrously with a mid-air collision. The work of safety organisations seems to have been in vain with the return of multiple CFIT accidents. And the world regions where safety is usually the least good appear to be keeping that reputation. The message is: "Back to the drawing board."
Source: Flight International
