IT IS THE WORLD'S single largest project in civil engineering today and one of the most complex combined excavation and reclamation projects in history, requiring the largest fleet of seaborne dredgers, ever assembled. It is the new Chek Lap Kok Airport in Hong Kong and, two years before it opens, it is already being criticised by some South-East Asian airlines because they fear the single-runway design will cause a serious peak-hour traffic constraint.
The HK$49.6 billion ($6.4 billion) project - named after Chek Lap Kok Island, which forms the northeast tip of the airport platform - is being dubbed the world's most modern airport. It is said to represent Hong Kong's commercial vision, financial power and technical ingenuity. The aviation industry is beginning to ask whether that vision, which has made the airport a reality, is actually flawed, and that, without a second runway, it will be limited to a peak of 40 aircraft movements an hour.
"With only one runway, this new airport will have exactly the same capacity as the present airport at Kai Tak," says the International Air Transport Authority's (IATA's) regional user-charges representative, Lim Lang Poh. "There may be an apparent increase because Chek Lap Kok will be open on a 24h basis, but in peak-hour terms - which is the bottleneck - there is no additional capacity being provided. From an airline-industry point of view, what we're saying to the authorities here is, if you're going to build a new airport, then build it with enough capacity for at least a couple of years of traffic growth."
IATA points out that, with 24.5 million passengers passing through Kai Tak in 1993 and yearly growth rates hovering somewhere around 5%, a straightforward linear extrapolation shows clearly that, Chek Lap Kok will already be at capacity when it opens. IATA says that its statistics take into account a potential drop in traffic in the lucrative Taiwan-Hong Kong market because of a thaw in the traditionally frosty relations between Taiwan and mainland China, which has so far prevented direct flights, and the likely impact that Macau's new airport will have. It adds, however, that growth in emerging markets such as Vietnam will more than compensate.
Given that the Asia-Pacific region is forecast to account for around 40% of international passenger traffic by the turn of the century, and with Chek Lap Kok being positioned with half the world's population less than 5h away - the reluctance to create extra runway capacity does appear short-sighted.
The original design, brief for Chek Lap Kok, called for a single runway terminal airport with the ability to handle 35 million passengers a year at opening day, but, which could be expanded to a twin parallel runway configuration and have the ability to accommodate, upward of 85 million people by 2040. Rapid economic growth across southern China, particularly in Guangdong Province, is said to have taken planners and the Hong Kong Government by surprise and meant that original traffic forecasts are hopelessly inadequate.
TRAFFIC FORECASTS
Was it that much of a surprise? Some pundits say not, arguing that the Government has been aware of the revised traffic forecasts for quite a while, but has seen fit to hide the figures behind a smokescreen for reasons of political expediency. Officially, the Government argument is that detailed traffic statistics have still to be completed. Unofficially, sources within the Department of Civil Aviation admit that they have been ready for some time.
Political wrangling has dogged the project, and the opening day has already been put back from January 1997 to April 1998. Chinese authorities are said to have taken issue with many aspects of the project, not least funding. The total cost of the Chek Lap Kok project (which includes bridges, expressways, tunnels, a high-speed rail link, a new harbour crossing and a new town) is HK$157 billion (around $20 billion). That figure caused consternation among Chinese officials attending Sino-UK talks, mainly because of the extent of Government borrowing and equity allocated to the project.
The Hong Kong Government has opted not to raise the issue of a second runway and prompt further costly delay. Sources close to the project believe that China will only give the go-ahead for a second runway when the territory reverts to them on 30 June 1997. In that way, tackling Hong Kong's congestion problems will reflect well on Beijing rather than London.
Among airlines, Hong Kong flag carrier Cathay Pacific has been leading the call for construction to begin soon. Perhaps bowing to the need to steer well clear of the political game being played over additional capacity, it dismisses the notion that the Hong Kong Government is purposefully delaying publication of detailed traffic statistics.
Tony Tyler, Cathay director of services and delivery, says: "The Airport Authority [set up by the Hong Kong Government in 1990, to oversee construction and operation of Chek Lap Kok], submitted updated traffic forecasts to the Government here some time ago and they are now considering whether it will justify the additional expenditure involved in a second runway. Almost everyone believes that it will. It is not in the style of the Government here to be covert about these things. They're pretty open and discuss matters of importance with us, and the airline industry, generally.
"The airport project is being taken one step at a time, he says, adding: "I think the second runway will be another example of that philosophy, and, before it becomes time critical, the Hong Kong Government will have resolved its position, and made sure the decision is made.
"He says that, along with other airlines, Cathay Pacific is very keen for the airport to provide more capacity. "We will continue to push for a second runway because we believe it will be utilised to a sensible and economic extent very quickly," the carrier says.
While Cathay Pacific's managing director Rod Eddington went on record as saying, a decision must be reached before the end of 1995, if a second 24h operational runway is to be ready by opening day. The airline has now revised its position, saying that the window of opportunity remains open until at least the middle of this year. The carrier says that it would be acceptable if a decision is made within that timeframe and, if so, the extra capacity would be available within a few months of opening.
The significance of Chek Lap Kok is immense. Cathay, which is in the midst of a massive fleet replacement programme, involving firm orders and options for Airbus Industrie and Boeing aircraft, valued at some $9 billion says that, without the airport it would be denied the opportunity of future expansion and that the Hong Kong aviation sector, as a whole, will suffer greatly.
Underlying its commitment to the airport, the carrier recently announced that it was to build a new headquarters on the southeast corner of the island at a cost of some HK$3.5 billion. Cathay's move to the new airport is being characterised as the single biggest event in the carrier's 50-year history, bringing its various departments under a single roof for the first time ever. The headquarters will also include a 20-floor crew hotel and will give the airline "significant cost savings".
In July, Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals (HACTL), of which Cathay Pacific is a 10% shareholder, was provisionally awarded one of the two franchises to run a cargo operation at Chek Lap Kok. HACTL will build a HK$7.8 billion terminal capable of processing up to 2.6 million tonnes of cargo annually. Meanwhile, a joint-venture company owned by Cathay Pacific and Dragonair and called Hong Kong Airport Services (HAS) has been short-listed for a ramp-handling franchise, and is expected to capture a high market share.
While Cathay is leading demands for a second runway, however, IATA argues that it is not necessarily the home-base airline that will suffer from a capacity shortfall. Rather, it is more likely to be foreign carriers, which suffer by being unable to launch additional frequency during commercially attractive peak-travel times. That is why the Orient Airlines Association (OAA) is backing calls for the second runway.
Lobbying effort
The OAA, which represents 16 of the region's leading airlines, including Qantas, Eva Airways and Singapore Airlines, says: "New forecasts indicate that demand will exceed the capacity of a single runway at Chek Lap Kok. The OAA intends to undertake a lobbying effort through its member airlines to ensure the requirements of the airlines, and hence the travelling public and the economy as a whole, are met".
Qantas has only just overcome a bout of political wrangling between the Hong Kong and Australian Governments over fifth-freedom rights and which has resulted in limits being placed on the number of passengers which they can transport on the so-called "golden triangle" routes. Any capacity limitations, either now or in the future, would doubtless affect them further.
Meanwhile, Eva Airways has recently announced that it is entering the Taiwan-Hong Kong market from February. The capacity issue could affect its ability to expand the route in the future unless the capacity issue is not resolved soon.
Even carriers from outside the Asia-Pacific region have joined the lobbying effort. British Airways, for instance, says that a decision must be made promptly if the problems of Kai Tak are not to be simply shifted to Chek Lap Kok. While not committing itself to future expansion of its operation in the territory, BA says that insufficient capacity will hamper its ability to develop existing and new routes.
Source: Flight International
