Forecasters are about to release new traffic estimates that could dictate whether Hong Kong accelerates work on a second Chek Lap Kok runway, which would strengthen its claim as an international hub, as the geopolitical transition now underway in the region begins to undermine its role as the gateway to China.
Both Iata and the Orient Airlines Association have lobbied Hong Kong to start work on a second runway immediately, rather than sticking to its original plan of waiting until after Chek Lap Kok opens. Even though the new airport's capacity with one runway is 10 million more than the 25 million passengers Kai Tak now strains to handle, airlines say CLK will be congested from day one for three reasons.
First, it is opening 10 months late, some suggest later. Second, China traffic has grown faster than planned. Third, even though CLK will operate without curfew, curfews elsewhere will compress Asian traffic into daylight hours, making round the clock operations irrelevant to boosting capacity.
Estimating daily traffic flows is central to the equation. But it is also the trickiest part because it requires forecasters to pierce imponderables about Hong Kong's future. Aside from doubts over its entrepot role under Chinese administration, other signals point in different directions.
If Taiwan launches direct flights to China (see page 20) it will result in the diversion of nearly 9 per cent of all traffic away from Hong Kong. And Taiwan-China passengers moving in both directions account for a whopping 44 per cent of Hong Kong's total transit traffic. Direct flights are also growing between China and other Asian cities, raising questions about Hong Kong's future as a gateway to China.
Conversely, China's growing traffic already accounts for at least 20 per cent of all Hong Kong passengers, while aircraft movements may be nearer 30 per cent, and Beijing is already pressing for more slots. In an effort to gain Hong Kong access for another Chinese airline, it recently denied a British Airways request to add London-Beijing frequencies. That was notable because its routine tactic has been to sit on Dragonair's requests (see story opposite).
Hong Kong could also become more attractive as a stopover on the Kangaroo route. After next July, flights between Europe and Hong Kong may be able to overfly China's interior rather than take the long dog-leg over India and Bangkok. This would put Hong Kong only 15 minutes farther from Europe than Bangkok.
If the Hong Kong government and Sino-British joint liaison group agreed now on a second runway, it could be complete by mid-1998. That could double aircraft movements and boost passenger capacity to 85 million. But where will they come from?
David Knibb
Source: Airline Business
