If a tree falls in a forest and no-one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?
Philosophical riddles such as these raise questions of observation and knowledge of reality and one could equally be applied to the start of the latest round of open skies transatlantic trade talks: if an ambitious policy loses momentum through the failing of political will or energy on both sides, is it allowed to quietly depart without excessive alarm?
Witness what is happening. US lead negotiator John Byerly last week took the Brussels-bound red-eye ahead of the official start of second-stage talks to warn Europe that no-one should expect a riotous free-for-all overnight. Negotiations, Byerly says, will require both sides to focus on what is achievable.
Now, while you can't fault the evident playing down of expectations on the eve of an administrative sea-change, the talks coincide with a problematic situation on both sides of the Atlantic with EC transport chief Jacques Barrot decamping to the justice department.
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No surprise then that both sides are now warning against the likelihood of instant results.
The USA's move to introduce a seemingly more ambitious agenda with its desire to create an enlarged global aviation area through a comprehensive dispensing of the nationality clause can only act as a distraction.
The negotiation process has a deadline for action and if a second-stage deal is not reached in 2010 it faces the prospect of sanctions by EU member states threatening to withdraw recently granted traffic rights.
A quick glance of the new scheduling realities does not make for happy reading. The next six months will see the technocrats hammering out the framework, dependent upon the supervision of an untested transport commissioner the subsequent six months of 2009 will see a new US president installed and the final six months of 2009 sees the European Commission entering its own term-end twilight.
The dilemma facing the US industry remains the same: can it find a way to compete effectively internationally, or default to the same cycle of dysfunction and bankruptcies?
Byerly insists Europe still needs to explain the benefits convincingly before US citizens allow greater foreign investment in an industry seen as a special case.
It is critical that both sides do not lose sight of the prize. Because aviation is anything but a normal industry, leadership on this issue is badly needed.
Source: Flight International
