The industry should be congratulated on a remarkable production ramp-up over the last four years which has seen output across the Airbus and Boeing airliner assembly lines expand by 50% from a low of 590 in 2003 to 900 aircraft in 2007.
The acceleration of output across the worldwide supplier base to a level that all but matches the all-time record of 914 deliveries set almost a decade ago, has come amid a drive from the airframers and their tier-one suppliers for lower costs and maximum flexibility. And unlike any previous ramp-up, the pressure to feed production lines on both sides of the Atlantic has been equal as the rivals boost their production in parallel.
Based on current projections, production will grow again in 2008 to around 1,000 aircraft and could potentially reach 1,200 units annually across the Airbus and Boeing plants by the end of the decade.
But the reality is that airliner production is cyclical, and everyone is brutally aware from past experience that what goes up must come down. What we don't know is when it will be coming down, how far and how quickly - the bane of all forecasters.
So as the industry approaches its finest hour, it must ensure that it is ready for downturn with the knowledge that with every boom year that passes, the prospects for a controlled, soft landing diminishes slightly more.
Source: Flight International
