Industry is hoping to persuade the Government cost-estimating community to change its conservative habits and give credit for the new manufacturing initiatives vital to achieving JSF affordability goals.
It is an issue that has dogged the US Air Force's Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 programme, with budget watchdogs refusing to factor in production savings projected by the contractors and using only historical data when calculating project costs.
This is being tackled up front with the JSF precisely because cost is so vital to the programme's survival. Programme director Leslie Kenne admits to a "disconnect" between the cost estimates provided by the contractors and those performed by the various Government agencies concerned, but says this could be resolved soon.
"The programme office does give credit to contractors for affordability initiatives," she says. "These are evaluated annually to see how well they are doing, and we can give or take away credit." Lockheed Martin JSF programme director Frank Cappuccio agrees, saying: "The Government is being very good about this. They apply the 'reasonable man' test - if a reasonable man would give us credit, we get credit."
Cappuccio says Lockheed Martin's CTOL JSF is "a good 10% below" the $28 million unit flyaway recurring cost target, using Government guidelines, but adds: "Using our weights and dollars, we're significantly below that." Both teams want to be well below the target price to allow for cost growth during development.
Kenne says the contractors "-have to prove what they are saying. Each has initiatives to build part of the aircraft, to show that the direct labour is what they say it is. These articles will prove the cost estimates - there is nothing better than real data".
Cappuccio says Lockheed Martin is substantiating its cost estimates by producing sample F-16 parts using JSF manufacturing technology. This allows a direct comparison with the substantial F-16 manufacturing cost database. As an example, he says spars that take 136h to make using F-16 production processes take only 39h using JSF manufacturing techniques.
Kenne, meanwhile, says the cost-estimating community is studying the new data to decide if there is reason to change its methodology. "In the next 18 months, there will be a great deal of activity on relooking at cost estimating relationships to update them and make them more current-it will be interesting to see what falls out."
Source: Flight International
