A think tank suggests that Chinese missiles could severely impair the application of US airpower in the event of a regional conflict.
In a recent report entitled “Cratering Effects”, the Stimson Center assesses the impact of repeated missile strikes on key US bases in Japan, the Northern Marianas, and other Pacific islands. It also looks at US missile defence capabilities and the ability of US forces to repair damaged runways.
It focuses on potential contingencies involving a Chinese invasion of neighbouring Taiwan or a conflict in the South China Sea. During the crucial early hours of such a conflict, when US doctrine calls for a major application of airpower, Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles could knock out US runways and give Beijing a critical window of opportunity.
Even in optimistic scenarios, the attacks with short- and medium-range missiles would close bases for several days, creating significant challenges for the generation of fighter sorties and, crucially, sorties by air-to-air tankers that are essential to combat operations in the vastness of the Asia-Pacific.
“These attacks could prevent the US Air Force from conducting fighter operations for about the first 12 days of a conflict from US air bases in Japan and nearly two days from US bases in Guam and other Pacific locations at the outset of war,” says the report, authored by Kelly Grieco, Hunter Singbaum, and Jonathan Walker.
“In practice, however, China could disrupt US combat operations for much longer by denying the United States the use of runways to conduct aerial refuelling operations.”
The report outlines various strategies China could employ with missile strikes, such as focusing attacks on bases where the US deploys fifth-generation fighters and on those that support tankers. Beijing could also wait for US aircraft, both fighters and tankers, to get airborne, and then use missile strikes to deny them bases to land.
The US and allies have sought to address the vulnerability of fixed US bases through the Agile Combat Employment (ACE) concept, which would see US aircraft moving between smaller airfields and bases.
ACE, however, is highly reliant on allies offering basing privileges. It is far from a given that regional allies will want to become embroiled in a war between China and the USA.
China’s missile threat is well understood. In its most recent report to Congress about Chinese military developments, the Pentagon has this to say: “The force is increasingly capable of conducting strikes against regional air bases, logistics and port facilities, communications, and other ground-based infrastructure – targets that PLA [People’s Liberation Army] writings discuss as adversary vulnerabilities.”
A potential solution to the Chinese threat, says the Stimson Center report, is to create an “inside air force” of runway-independent unmanned systems that are pre-positioned to operate in contested airspace near China.
“US bombers, as well as cargo aircraft armed with palletised munitions, should play a secondary role in blunting Chinese attacks, but they should not be a substitute for an active inside air force,” it says.
