China maintained relentless aerial pressure against Taiwan in 2023, conducting thousands of sorties with fighters and support aircraft, many of which entered Taipei’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
During the year Taipei detected a total of 4,679 Chinese aircraft flying near its airspace, of which 1,674 intruded into its ADIZ, according to FlightGlobal’s compilation of daily statistics published by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.
Chinese fighters routinely crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait, the narrow body of water that divides the two countries. Fighters accounted for 1,092 of China’s 2023 ADIZ incursions, or 65% of the total.
Among Chinese fighters, the Shenyang J-16 led ADIZ incursions, with Taiwanese air defence units spotting the type 380 times, followed by the single-engined Chengdu J-10, which took part in 354 ADIZ incursions.
Types such as the Shenyang J-11 and Sukhoi Su-30 also featured prominently. Moreover, April 2023 saw Shenyang J-15s – operating from the aircraft carrier CNS Shandong in the western Pacific – operate aerial incursions against Taiwan’s eastern seaboard. This was the only time during 2023 that Taiwan recorded incursions by fixed-wing carrier-borne aircraft.
Curiously, China’s most advanced fighter, the Chengdu J-20, has yet to be reported in Taiwan’s ADIZ. It is possible, however, that the stealthy type falls under the scope of aircraft that are detected but which do not mount ADIZ incursions.
As for Taiwan, when reporting detections and incursions of Chinese aircraft and naval vessels it offers the same stock response: “Armed forces have monitored the situation closely and tasked [Combat Air Patrol] aircraft, navy vessels, and land-based missile systems to respond [to] these activities.”
Anti-submarine warfare (ASW) appears to be a major focus for Beijing, with 213 fixed- or rotary-wing ASW assets intruding into Taiwan’s ADIZ during 2023. The Shaanxi Y-8Q ASW aircraft accounted for 119 incursions. Moreover, ASW helicopters such as the Harbin Z-9 and Kamov Ka-28 routinely operated from warships in the waters near Taiwan.
While the incursions are meant to serve the twin roles of training Chinese pilots and pressuring the democratic government of Taiwan – not to mention intimidating the Taiwanese people – 2023’s activity highlights some weak points in China’s airpower capabilities.
The year saw only 11 ADIZ incursions with Xian Y-20U tankers. These incursions, mounted in April, June, August, and September, followed a similar pattern: the aircraft flew southwest from the Chinese mainland before performing a dogleg towards the northeast. Typically conducted with H-20 bombers, Shaanxi KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft, and fighters, the limited number of Y-20U ADIZ incursions underlines the paucity of dedicated tankers in the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).
Perhaps the most ambitious tanker sortie happened on 13 September, when a trio of Y-20Us supported 16 J-16s completed a sortie south of Taiwan. Nonetheless, a lack of tankers raises questions about Beijing’s ability to achieve and maintain air superiority over the western Pacific in the event of a conflict.
Around the median line, Chinese fighters appear to be taking a more aggressive posture. During a major incursion in August, fighters crossed the median line and flew several kilometers along Taiwan’s side, before turning back towards China. In previous years, PLAAF pilots would cross the line briefly before turning sharply back towards the Chinese coastline.
Chinese unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) made a record-setting 145 appearances in Taiwan’s ADIZ during the year. The most prominent Chinese UAV was the Harbin BZK-005, with 76 incursions. The medium-altitude, long-endurance type serves with both the People’s Liberation Army Navy and the PLAAF.
The fourth quarter of 2023 saw 329 overall incursions, the lowest quarterly count for the year. It is possible that Beijing wants to remain visible, but not be overly provocative as Taiwan approaches a general election on 13 January – the Chinese Communist Party views independently-governed Taiwan as its own sovereign territory.
The frontrunner in the election is the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a party that Beijing sees as too pro-independence. A strong showing by the DPP could spur Beijing to mount a major show of force in the skies around Taiwan. Such a show could perhaps see Beijing send the J-20, arguably its most menacing fighter, into Taiwan’s ADIZ.
