Leonardo has revealed a first order estimate for the three-nation Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) being advanced by joint partners Italy, Japan and the UK.
“A total of 350 platform orders for the entire joint venture are expected by 2035,” Leonardo disclosed within its broad-reaching industrial plan update on 11 March.
The mid-decade date cited by the programme’s Italian partner corresponds to the planned entry into service of a sixth-generation fighter – named Tempest by the UK – via the GCAP effort.
Leonardo has not provided further details, such as an expected split by nation. However, it is likely that the 350-aircraft figure would be built on through subsequent commitments by the partners, and via future deals with potential export customers.
Analysis of the GCAP partners’ current combat aircraft fleets shows that their air forces have a combined 630 fourth- and fifth-generation fighters in use.
Fleets data from aviation analytics company Cirium indicates that Japan has more combat aircraft than its two GCAP partners combined: 328, against Italy’s 160 and the UK’s 142.
Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) assets include 199 Boeing/Mitsubishi F-15D/Js, 39 Lockheed Martin F-35A/Bs and 90 Mitsubishi F-2s. A portion of its fleet of F-15s – with airframes aged between 25 and 44 years – will be upgraded to a ‘Japanese Super Interceptor’ standard, with the work expected to cover 70 aircraft.
The JASDF’s priority is to field a replacement for the F-2: an evolution of the Lockheed F-16. Its oldest example of the single-engined type is aged 29 years.
| Current GCAP partner nation fleets | |
| Italian air force | Active |
| Eurofighter | 90 |
| F-35A/B | 31 |
| Tornado | 39 |
| Total | 160 |
| Japan Air Self-Defense Force | Active |
| F-2 | 90 |
| F-15D/J | 199 |
| F-35A/B | 39 |
| Total | 328 |
| UK Royal Air Force | Active |
| Eurofighter | 107 |
| F-35B | 35 |
| Total | 142 |
| Combined total | 630 |
| Source: Cirium | |
The Italian air force flies 90 Eurofighters, 31 F-35A/Bs and 39 Panavia Tornados, with the last of these types nearing the end of its operational life. Rome also plans to replace its oldest, Tranche 1-standard Eurofighters with up to 24 new-build examples, under a procurement plan announced last December.
The UK Royal Air Force, meanwhile, currently operates 107 Eurofighter Typhoons and 35 F-35Bs. Its future combat air mix will be among key considerations during an ongoing Strategic Defence Review, especially around further purchases of the F-35.
Leonardo notes that the GCAP partner nations have to date pledged a combined €40 billion ($43.7 billion) to the effort, to cover the period to 2035. A decision on continued development and production of the future fighter should be made late this year.
BAE Systems of the UK, Leonardo, and the Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Company will each hold a 33.3% stake in an industrial joint venture to be formally established in mid-2025.
Future assembly work will be conducted at Warton in the UK, Turin in Italy and Nagoya in Japan.
