The war in Ukraine entered a new phase in mid-November, as Kyiv’s forces began to engage military targets inside Russian territory using long-range weapons donated by the USA and its other western allies.
Months after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky first asked for permission to use donated missiles to hit Russian targets, the administration of his outgoing US counterpart Joe Biden removed restrictions preventing their employment.
While the decision means that Ukrainian ground forces are now able to fire Lockheed Martin-produced ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles – which have a maximum range of 162nm (300km), it also opens the possibility for its air force to also begin using cruise missiles donated by France and the UK.
The Ukrainian air force has already received the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow weapon, with the type having been successfully integrated with the Sukhoi Su-24 ground-attack aircraft in mid-2023. Examples of the roughly 1,300kg (2,870lb), subsonic missile have previously been used against fixed targets inside occupied Crimea, including to strike vessels from the Russian navy’s Black Sea Fleet.
Marking the 1,000th day of the conflict since Russian forces invaded Ukrainian territory on 24 February 2022, NATO on 19 November repeated its condemnation of Moscow’s action.
“As we mark the sombre milestone of 1,000 days since war has been raging in the country, we reaffirm our commitment to supporting Ukraine in its fight for its freedom, and helping it prevail against Russia’s aggression,” the western military alliance says.
“But these have also been 1,000 days of unprecedented military support, solidarity and humanitarian aid. A thousand days of NATO never ceasing to stand side-by-side with Ukraine,” it adds.
“This war must end. Our support for Ukraine will not,” says NATO secretary general Mark Rutte. “There can be no peace in Europe without peace for Ukraine.”
Should Ukraine begin to use of its donated SCALP-EG/Strom Shadow weapons, a reduction in stocks is likely to lead to fresh calls for Berlin to also approve the transfer of Taurus air-launched cruise missiles. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has to date declined to back such a move, amid concern of prompting an escalation of the conflict.
Russia, meanwhile, has condemned the agreement allowing Ukraine to strike targets on its territory as an escalation of the conflict, with its foreign ministry warning of an “appropriate and tangible” response.
The initial use of ATACMS will, however, have served as an alert to Moscow’s armed forces about the vulnerability of combat aircraft being used to strike targets in eastern Ukraine during sorties flown entirely within Russian airspace, potentially driving them further away from the frontline.
Speaking at a meeting of the multinational Ukraine Defence Contact Group at Ramstein air base in Germany on 6 September, Zelensky noted that being able to use long-range weapons was vital so that “Russia is motivated to seek peace”.
The likely future path of the conflict in Ukraine remains uncertain, not least due to the pending return to the White House of US President-elect Donald Trump – who has been critical of Washington’s donation of equipment to Kyiv – in late January.
