The UK aerospace industry faces a major challenge in preventing a skills gap between production of the Eurofighter Typhoon and a future manned type via the trinational Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a cross-party parliamentary group has warned.
Published on 14 January, a report by the House of Commons Defence Committee, titled The Global Combat Air Programme, cautions that delivering a new fighter for operational use within a decade also will require a continued strong commitment from the UK government.
Being advanced jointly by the defence ministries and aerospace industry champions of Italy, Japan and the UK, the effort is currently in its early design definition phase, with agreements now in place for its industrial framework and GCAP International Governmental Organisation programme management structure.
The project intends to deliver a range of next-generation combat air capabilities, including a manned fighter – named Tempest by the UK – to enter use from 2035.
The UK Ministry of Defence has to date committed more than £2 billion ($2.4 billion) to GCAP and the UK-only Team Tempest effort, with another £12 billion-plus budgeted for the next decade. It will be among the leading procurements to be considered within the government’s Strategic Defence Review – an activity which is due to report its recommendations by around mid-year.
“With increasing pressure on the defence budget, the report calls for [the UK] government and industry to keep tight control of the costs of GCAP,” the committee says. It also recommends the establishment of a multi-year funding mechanism, which it says will “put the programme on a secure footing and provide international partners with confidence in the UK’s ongoing commitment”.
However, it adds: “As costs become more clearly defined they must be made transparent to enable meaningful parliamentary scrutiny.
“Whilst progress to date has been positive, previous multilateral defence programmes have frequently seen costs spiral and delays pile up and GCAP will have to break the mould if it is to achieve its ambitious target date,” the report says.
“With full-scale production of Tempest not expected to begin until the 2030s, retaining the existing Typhoon workforce will be a significant challenge and will be made more difficult by the dwindling of the UK Typhoon production line at BAE Systems’ site in Warton,” the committee states.
Union representatives from the Lancashire facility warned in November 2024 “that there are currently no Typhoons being final assembled at Warton and no orders for any future aircraft, [and that] essentially production has stopped for British-built Typhoon aircraft”. BAE’s most recent activity has been to assemble 24 of the aircraft for Qatar, which by late last year had taken 20 of those jets.
The union officials also called on the UK government “to place a further order for 24 aircraft, arguing that this would fulfil a military requirement, maintain industrial capacity, and also encourage export orders from other nations”.
The UK is the only one of the four Eurofighter partner nations not to have placed follow-on orders for the multirole type, with Germany, Italy and Spain having committed to buying up to a combined 127 additional examples to replace their oldest Tranche 1 aircraft. The UK plans to retire its earliest Typhoons from next year.
“Recruitment and retention will be a major challenge for a programme of this scale and transitioning the existing Typhoon workforce will be critical,” the report says. “Securing further Typhoon export orders will be key to achieving this goal,” it adds.
“It will be important for GCAP to avoid the disputes over exports which have plagued the Typhoon programme, where Germany’s effective veto has hampered UK export opportunities in recent years and has had a significant impact on the sustainability of the domestic combat air sector.”
Saudi Arabia late last decade expressed interest in adding to its 72-strong fleet of UK-assembled Typhoons, but the government in Berlin blocked any such transaction. That obstacle was only removed in early 2024, by which time Riyadh had initiated a competition, also attracting the Boeing F-15EX and Dassault Aviation Rafale for a 54-aircraft need.
The committee, meanwhile, also notes that “Japan’s inexperience as a defence exporter is likely to present unique challenges for GCAP.
“The UK government must continue to support and encourage Japan in making the necessary legislative and industrial progress to ensure that the new GCAP fighter can be successfully exported,” it says.
“The complex web of relationships between governments and industry both across and within the partner nations will need to be carefully navigated: the delivery organisations set up for this purpose must be sufficiently empowered; and workshare arrangements will need to accommodate flexibility within a clearly defined framework,” the committee says.
And, regarding the potential future participation of other nations in the GCAP endeavour, its report argues: “Any reopening of negotiations over requirements and workshare to accommodate a new partner could threaten to derail the programme. Any additional partnering arrangements that could jeopardise the 2035 in-service date should not be contemplated.
“If we are to maintain pace and meet the 2035 target, the programme must be structured to enable the right people to make timely and binding decisions,” says Tan Dhesi, chair of the Defence Committee.
“If delivered as planned, GCAP will enable the UK to retain national sovereignty in combat air, providing a vital military capability in an increasingly volatile world. We also recognise the opportunities the programme brings to deepen the UK’s relationships with its allies and to shore up defence industrial capacity,” the report notes.
