Airbus's latest forecast brings its long-term outlook much closer to that of its rival Boeing in terms of units delivered. However, there are still significant differences in the expected demand for different size categories of aircraft.
The Airbus 2006 Global Market Forecast (GMF) puts 20-year demand at 22,660 aircraft worth $2,600 billion. Boeing's latest Current Market Outlook (CMO), published in July, forecasts 23,760 deliveries (excluding regional jets as Airbus does not include its forecast for this sector in its headline numbers) worth around $2,500 billion. Airbus's previous demand forecast (published in late 2004) was significantly lower than Boeing's 2005 CMO, with the Europeans estimating 17,330 deliveries versus 21,850 predicted by Seattle.
Airbus dismisses suggestions that its lower forecast demand for the number of units delivered and its conviction that average aircraft size will grow is because it does not believe in fragmentation. "We believe that the number of routes will grow 60% by 2025, but most new routes involve a hub," says Airbus vice-president market research and forecasts Laurent Rouaud. "The number of hub to secondary city connections will more than double."
Rouaud adds that Airbus forecasts there will be a 20% increase in frequencies over the next 20 years "but there is a limit to the growth that airlines can undertake", and that the "average number of seats in each aircraft" will increase by 20%.
This thinking is what drives Airbus to predict greater demand for very large aircraft than Boeing (see graphic), although Rouaud points out that the US manufacturer is gradually increasing its outlook for this sector each time it updates its CMO.
Unlike Airbus, Boeing is predicting little long-term growth in average aircraft size, with Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice-president marketing Randy Baseler saying earlier this year that "airlines will continue to demand new airplanes so they can continue to respond to what passengers want: more non-stop, point-to-point flights, and more frequencies".
Rouaud says that "if you ask the 15 forecasters out there, 14 of them will say that average aircraft size will increase".
Source: Flight International
