GUY NORRIS / LOS ANGELES
Slow recovery suggests a dismal outlook for ageing airliners in storage in USA
Prospects for the bulk of the world's stored jet airliner fleet are growing increasingly bleak due to a slower than hoped for recovery of the industry, according to analysts.
Boeing market analysis director Tim Meskill told last month's Speednews supplier conference: "We think about 700 aircraft can come back," out of a desert fleet numbering around 2,020. The bulk of these retirements will be "period II" aircraft such as the Boeing 727, 737-200 and 747 Classics, McDonnell Douglas DC-8-70, DC-9s andDC-10s, and Airbus A300s built between 20 and 30 years ago.
Airclaims data shows 1,257 aircraft of this vintage are now stored, 443 of them since 11 September.
Among the jets, says Boeing, are 102 "period I" aircraft built more than 30 years ago and stored before September. The expected survivors come mostly from 600 aircraft built since 1981. Large "period II" stored fleets are most likely to stay in the desert, says Meskill. "There are entire fleets of 727s that probably will not come back," he says.
Boeing believes the stored aircraft represent the first wave of a retirement phase that could extend to 4,000 aircraft in the relatively near future. "There are about 1,250 parked aircraft built in period II that are prime candidates to be permanently withdrawn, and another 2,800 still in active service."
Source: Flight International
