The US Department of Defense (DoD) has concluded that there is sufficient business to ensure a future for the four main US military helicopter manufacturers, although industry consolidation remains a possibility.
The Pentagon recognises the problems of declining US military procurement, over-capacity and strong foreign competition, but argues that US manufacturers should profit from a projected world demand for larger, multi-engine, military and civil types.
The study concedes that the four main US manufacturers, Bell Helicopter Textron, Boeing Helicopters, McDonnell Douglas Helicopter Systems and Sikorsky Aircraft, will lose market share. The four companies supplied 60% of the world's helicopters in 1994, but that share is expected to drop to 40% over the next ten years because of the decline in Pentagon purchases.
The value of worldwide helicopter production is predicted to increase from $6 billion in 1995 to $9 billion in 2004. Military sales will dip in 1995 and 1996 before stabilising in 2001.
Combined civil and military helicopter production worldwide, reached a low of 1,214 units in 1993, but is predicted to remain relatively stable at 1,500 units a year, through to 2004.
"Although continued excess capacity suggests that some future consolidation may occur, those prime contractors remaining are expected to retain sufficient capabilities to meet DoD requirements," the study shows.
Source: Flight International
