Fuelled by a strong order intake and a record backlog, Bombardier comes to EBACE optimistic about increasing delivery numbers through the next decade.
Growth in non-US markets is expected to drive the business jet deliveries to 1,320 yearly between 2008 and 2017, compared with the industry average of 620 yearly in the 1998-2007 period, according to the Canadian company’s latest forecast.
The forecast – estimating value of more than $300 billion over the ten years - does not include aircraft it has categorised as VLJs (Very Light Jets) such as the Beechcraft Premier I, the Cessna Citation Mustang, CJ1+, CJ2+, Eclipse and Embraer Phenom 100.
Bombardier is watching this sector closely, as manufacturers such as Cessna and Embraer are happier seeing their aircraft as “Entry Level” jets. These manufacturers believe their aircraft will make an impact on the traditional charter market, which could boost the delivery numbers even further once the aircraft smaller than Bombardier’s Lear 40 offering are taken into account.
Bombardier vice-president strategy and business development Mairead Lavery says deliveries should rise steadily from nearly 1,000 this year to almost 1,500 in 2017, although orders are expected to drop from just under 1,800 last year to fewer than 1,000 next year before beginning to climb again.
Last year’s orders surge came as a surprise, she says, and led Bombardier to boost its delivery forecast dramatically from the 2007 forecast of 995 a year in the 2007-16 period. These expectations stand despite a possible US economic downturn, she says. Key factors underpinning Bombardier’s optimism include the fact that about 20 major new aircraft programmes are set to bear fruit in the next decade, and markets outside North America have grown to represent more than half of world business jet deliveries and 67% of orders in 2007.
International markets will continue growing, says Lavery. In addition, she adds, industry backlogs represent 29 months’ production and the market for secondhand aircraft is healthy. Commenting on US economic worries, president and chief operating officer Pierre Beaudoin says: “As far as aviation is concerned we have not seen an impact. We see growth.”
While the total market share of US-registered business aircraft may be dropping, the real numbers are also expected to climb. Ten years ago, the USA’s 70% represented just over 6,000 units. The 2017 forecast of 54% equates to some 13,300 units.
Beaudoin ruled out the possibility of Bombardier challenging the likes of Cessna and Embraer in the very light market segments. “We already offer the industry’s most complete product portfolio and are well positioned with a product line covering 95% of revenues. The margins are much greater on the larger aircraft.”
Lavery says there are a number of positive signs for the business aviation industry. “There are more than 20 models in development by OEMs for potential entry into service during the next decade,” she says. “There are no current signs of weakness in the pre-owned business jet market. The pre owned inventory as a percentage of total fleet decreased by one percent to 10.9% in 2007.”
The current industry record backlog was estimated by Lavery as being the equivalent of two-and-a-half years’ production (2,571 units worth $63 billion).
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Source: Flight Daily News
